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Voting after a major flood: Is there a link between democratic experience and retrospective voting?

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  • Neugart, Michael
  • Rode, Johannes

Abstract

We explore whether retrospective voting is related to voters' democratic experience. To this end, we compare the voting behavior in West Germany to the voting behavior in the formerly non-democratic East Germany after a disaster relief program addressing a flood in 2013. Our analysis reveals a 2.2 (or 0.9 percentage points) increase in the vote share for the incumbent party in the flooded municipalities in the East compared to the West. Analyzing an earlier flood, variation of democratic experience within East Germany, and a panel survey provides further evidence that less democratically experienced voters are easier prey to pre-election policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Neugart, Michael & Rode, Johannes, 2021. "Voting after a major flood: Is there a link between democratic experience and retrospective voting?," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 125005, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    • Handle: RePEc:dar:wpaper:125005
    Note: for complete metadata visit http://tubiblio.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/125005/
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    Cited by:

    1. Augusto Cerqua & Chiara Ferrante & Marco Letta, 2021. "Electoral earthquake: natural disasters and the geography of discontent," Discussion Paper series in Regional Science & Economic Geography 2021-03, Gran Sasso Science Institute, Social Sciences, revised Mar 2021.
    2. De Groote, Olivier & Gautier, Axel & Verboven, Frank, 2024. "The political economy of financing climate policy — Evidence from the solar PV subsidy programs," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    3. Anna Laura Baraldi & Claudia Cantabene & Alessandro De Iudicibus & Giovanni Fosco & Erasmo Papagni, 2025. "Shocks and Selection: How Earthquakes Shape Local Political Representation," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2025/06, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    4. Cerqua, Augusto & Ferrante, Chiara & Letta, Marco, 2023. "Electoral earthquake: Local shocks and authoritarian voting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    5. Osberghaus, Daniel & Reif, Christiane, 2021. "How do different compensation schemes and loss experience affect insurance decisions? Experimental evidence from two independent and heterogeneous samples," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    6. Nicolas Cerkez, 2025. "Extreme Weather Events and the Support for Democracy," CSAE Working Paper Series 2025-03, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    7. Daniel Osberghaus & Christian Groß & Gert G. Wagner & Frank Offermann & Christoph Duden & Jonas Schmitt & Michael Berlemann & Jörg Asmussen & Markus Roth & Lamia Messari-Becker & Nicola Garbarino & Ben, 2021. "Extremwetterereignisse: Staatshilfe oder private Vorsorge – wer trägt die Kosten?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 74(11), pages 03-28, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • H84 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Disaster Aid
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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