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Voting after a major flood: Is there a link between democratic experience and retrospective voting?

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  • Neugart, Michael
  • Rode, Johannes

Abstract

We explore whether retrospective voting is related to voters’ democratic experience. To this end, we compare the voting behavior in West Germany to the voting behavior in the formerly non-democratic East Germany after a disaster relief program addressing a flood in 2013. Our analysis reveals a 2.2% (or 0.9 percentage points) increase in the vote share for the incumbent party in the flooded municipalities in the East compared to the West. Analyzing an earlier flood, variation of democratic experience within East Germany, and a panel survey provides further evidence that less democratically experienced voters are easier prey to pre-election policies.

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  • Neugart, Michael & Rode, Johannes, 2021. "Voting after a major flood: Is there a link between democratic experience and retrospective voting?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:133:y:2021:i:c:s0014292121000180
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103665
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    Cited by:

    1. Cerqua, A. & Ferrante, C. & Letta, M., 2021. "Electoral Earthquake: Natural Disasters and the Geography of Discontent," GLO Discussion Paper Series 790, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. Olivier De Groote & Axel Gautier & Frank Verboven, 2020. "The political economic of financing climate policy : evidence from the solar PV subsidy programs," Working Paper Research 389, National Bank of Belgium.
    3. Osberghaus, Daniel & Reif, Christiane, 2021. "How do different compensation schemes and loss experience affect insurance decisions? Experimental evidence from two independent and heterogeneous samples," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    4. Cerqua, Augusto & Ferrante, Chiara & Letta, Marco, 2023. "Electoral earthquake: Local shocks and authoritarian voting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    5. Daniel Osberghaus & Christian Groß & Gert G. Wagner & Frank Offermann & Christoph Duden & Jonas Schmitt & Michael Berlemann & Jörg Asmussen & Markus Roth & Lamia Messari-Becker & Nicola Garbarino & Ben, 2021. "Extreme Weather Events: State Aid or Private Provision – Who Bears the Costs?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 74(11), pages 03-28, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Retrospective voting; Natural disaster; Democratic experience; Relief program;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • H84 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Disaster Aid
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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