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Extreme Weather Events and the Support for Democracy

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  • Nicolas Cerkez

Abstract

Climate change and the erosion of democratic norms are two of the most pressing global challenges. This paper establishes a link between individuals’ support for democracy and extreme weather events, such as droughts, in the context of sub-Saharan Africa - a region highly vulnerable to climate change and where democratic norms are fragile. I analyze this relationship using Afrobarometer data on support for democracy from 2002 to 2015, covering 129,002 individuals across 16 countries, combined with granular weather data from 1960 to 2015 at a 27km × 27km grid cell resolution. I find that exposure to drought reduces support for democracy by 2.56%, but that this effect is limited to individuals living in established democracies. I further explore how this weakening of democratic norms is linked to exposure to non-democratic governance systems, proxied by proximity to development projects funded by autocratic regimes. I find that the effect of droughts on support for democracy is significant only for individuals exposed to autocratic systems. Finally, I provide suggestive evidence that this reduction in support for democracy is associated with lower political engagement, as measured by participation in demonstrations. These findings highlight the political costs of climate change in developing countries.

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  • Nicolas Cerkez, 2025. "Extreme Weather Events and the Support for Democracy," CSAE Working Paper Series 2025-03, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2025-03
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

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