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The political fallout of air pollution

Author

Listed:
  • Luna Bellani

    (c AXA Research Lab on Gender Equality at Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy (DONDENA) , Milan 20136 , Italy)

  • Stefano Ceolotto

    (d Risk Assessment and Adaptation Strategies (RAAS) , Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change and Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Edificio Porta dell’Innovazione - Piano 2 , Venezia Marghera 30175 , Italy)

  • Benjamin Elsner

    (f Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration , University College London , London WC1H 0AX , United Kingdom)

  • Nico Pestel

    (h CESifo Research Network , Munich 81679 , Germany)

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of air pollution on voting outcomes. We use data from 60 federal and state elections in Germany from 2000 to 2018 and exploit plausibly exogenous fluctuations in ambient air pollution within counties across election dates. Higher air pollution on election day shifts votes away from incumbent parties and toward opposition parties. An increase in the concentration of particulate matter (PM10) by 10 μ g/m 3 —around two within-county SDs—reduces the vote share of incumbent parties by two percentage points, which is equivalent to 4% of the mean vote share. We generalize these findings by documenting similar effects with data from a weekly opinion poll and a large-scale panel survey. We provide further evidence that poor air quality leads to more negative emotions such as anger, worry, and unhappiness, which, in turn, may reduce the support for the political status quo. Overall, these results suggest that poor air quality affects decision-making in the population at large, including consequential political decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Luna Bellani & Stefano Ceolotto & Benjamin Elsner & Nico Pestel, 2024. "The political fallout of air pollution," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 121(18), pages 2314428121-, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:121:y:2024:p:e2314428121
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2314428121
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    Cited by:

    1. Arin, K. Peren & Devereux, Kevin & Methorst, Joel & Thum, Marcel, 2025. "Flooding the vote: Heterogeneous voting responses to a natural disaster in Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    2. Li, Jianglong & Sun, Shiqiang & Meng, Guanfei & Liu, Hongxun, 2026. "Political gestures or tightening mandates? New evidence for campaign-style environmental intervention in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    3. Rosello, Giulia & Reatini, Maria Antonietta & Pinto, Gabriele & Cattani, Giorgio, 2026. "Airless democracy: Air pollution and voter turnout," MERIT Working Papers 004, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    4. Giulia Rossello & Maria Antonietta Reatini & Gabriele Pinto & Giorgio Cattani, 2026. "Airless Democracy: Air Pollution and Voter Turnout," Discussion Papers 2026/328, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.

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