Political gestures or tightening mandates? New evidence for campaign-style environmental intervention in China

This study investigates China's campaign-style environmental interventions during politically sensitive periods, addressing whether pollution abatement reflects transient political signaling or durable regulatory tightening. Leveraging daily data from 110 Chinese cities (2014–2020) surrounding President Xi's inspection tours, we employ regression discontinuity in time and difference-in-differences designs to disentangle short-term versus sustained effects. Results reveal significant pollution rebound post-inspections, predominantly driven by lifted traffic restrictions rather than industrial controls. However, medium-term analysis demonstrates that inspections catalyze lasting improvements when accompanied by strong environmental rhetoric, with effects sustained through intensified routine enforcement. Regional heterogeneity shows northern cities achieve larger SO₂ reductions despite greater structural challenges. The findings reveal that campaign-style interventions generate both short-term political gestures and medium-term institutional tightening, with the transition to routine governance producing environmental benefits when political signals are sufficiently strong.