IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/wdevel/v188y2025ics0305750x24002985.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Rewarding performance in disaster response: Evidence from local governments in Latin America

Author

Listed:
  • Livert, Felipe
  • Weaver, Julie Anne
  • Bordón, Paola

Abstract

Given the increasing frequency of large-scale disasters, managing such emergencies is becoming an important domain of politicians’ responsibilities in office. Models of electoral accountability posit that voter reward and sanctioning in re-elections incentivizes good performance. Yet little accountability research considers how electoral incentives impact this new type of public sector responsibility. Most studies of electoral responses to disasters tend to study voter reactions to the existence of the disaster itself, rather than how politicians perform in responding to it after the fact. Those that do incorporate performance use metrics like disaster declarations or allocating relief aid, which may be relevant for national actors, but not local-level politicians whose main role in disaster response is spending the funds they receive from the central level to manage recovery efforts. Furthermore, most research studies only one disaster at a time and focuses on economically advanced countries. Our approach addresses each of these gaps by combining local-level electoral returns in Chile and Peru with detailed data on how mayors perform in responding to a variety of natural catastrophes. We find that voters do in fact reward local politicians that effectively manage disasters, providing a blueprint for how to best incentivize disaster responsiveness going forward.

Suggested Citation

  • Livert, Felipe & Weaver, Julie Anne & Bordón, Paola, 2025. "Rewarding performance in disaster response: Evidence from local governments in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:188:y:2025:i:c:s0305750x24002985
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106828
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X24002985
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106828?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Healy, Andrew & Malhotra, Neil, 2009. "Myopic Voters and Natural Disaster Policy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 103(3), pages 387-406, August.
    2. Alain de Janvry & Frederico Finan & Elisabeth Sadoulet, 2012. "Local Electoral Incentives and Decentralized Program Performance," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(3), pages 672-685, August.
    3. Ana L. De La O, 2013. "Do Conditional Cash Transfers Affect Electoral Behavior? Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in Mexico," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(1), pages 1-14, January.
    4. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    5. Sean Gailmard & John W. Patty, 2019. "Preventing Prevention," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 63(2), pages 342-352, April.
    6. Fuchs, Alan & Rodriguez-Chamussy, Lourdes, 2014. "Voter response to natural disaster aid : quasi-experimental evidence from drought relief payments in Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6836, The World Bank.
    7. John T. Gasper & Andrew Reeves, 2011. "Make It Rain? Retrospection and the Attentive Electorate in the Context of Natural Disasters," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(2), pages 340-355, April.
    8. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2011. "A simple method for estimating unconditional heterogeneity distributions in correlated random effects models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 12-15, October.
    9. Norman V. Loayza & Jamele Rigolini & Oscar Calvo-González, 2014. "More Than You Can Handle: Decentralization and Spending Ability of Peruvian Municipalities," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 56-78, March.
    10. Anders Fredriksson & Gustavo Magalhães de Oliveira, 2019. "Impact evaluation using Difference-in-Differences," RAUSP Management Journal, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 54(4), pages 519-532, October.
    11. Lucy Martin & Pia J. Raffler, 2021. "Fault Lines: The Effects of Bureaucratic Power on Electoral Accountability," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(1), pages 210-224, January.
    12. Claudio Ferraz & Frederico Finan, 2008. "Exposing Corrupt Politicians: The Effects of Brazil's Publicly Released Audits on Electoral Outcomes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(2), pages 703-745.
    13. Cameron D. Anderson, 2006. "Economic Voting and Multilevel Governance: A Comparative Individual‐Level Analysis," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(2), pages 449-463, April.
    14. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    15. Haruo Kondoh & Takeshi Miyazaki, 2024. "Do natural disasters affect local elections? An empirical examination using subnational electoral data," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 868-900, July.
    16. Gélineau, François & Remmer, Karen L., 2006. "Political Decentralization and Electoral Accountability: The Argentine Experience, 1983–2001," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 133-157, January.
    17. Cerqua, Augusto & Ferrante, Chiara & Letta, Marco, 2023. "Electoral earthquake: Local shocks and authoritarian voting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    18. Dunning, Thad & Grossman, Guy & Humphreys, Macartan & Hyde, Susan D. & McIntosh, Craig & Nellis, Gareth & Adida, Claire L. & Arias, Eric & Bicalho, Clara & Boas, Taylor C. & Buntaine, Mark T. & Chauch, 2019. "Voter information campaigns and political accountability: Cumulative findings from a preregistered meta-analysis of coordinated trials," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 5(7), pages 1-10.
    19. Michael M. Bechtel & Jens Hainmueller, 2011. "How Lasting Is Voter Gratitude? An Analysis of the Short‐ and Long‐Term Electoral Returns to Beneficial Policy," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(4), pages 852-868, October.
    20. Adida, Claire & Gottlieb, Jessica & Kramon, Eric & McClendon, Gwyneth, 2017. "Reducing or Reinforcing In-Group Preferences? An Experiment on Information and Ethnic Voting," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 12(4), pages 437-477, December.
    21. Cole, Shawn & Healy, Andrew & Werker, Eric, 2012. "Do voters demand responsive governments? Evidence from Indian disaster relief," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 167-181.
    22. Healy, Andrew & Malhotra, Neil, 2010. "Random Events, Economic Losses, and Retrospective Voting: Implications for Democratic Competence," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 5(2), pages 193-208, August.
    23. Quiroz Flores, Alejandro & Smith, Alastair, 2013. "Leader Survival and Natural Disasters," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(4), pages 821-843, October.
    24. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    25. Carla Morvan & Sonia Paty, 2024. "Natural disasters and voter gratitude: What is the role of prevention policies?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 198(3), pages 427-465, March.
    26. Gustavo J. Bobonis & Luis R. Cámara Fuertes & Rainer Schwabe, 2016. "Monitoring Corruptible Politicians," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(8), pages 2371-2405, August.
    27. Scott Ashworth & Ethan Bueno de Mesquita & Amanda Friedenberg, 2018. "Learning about Voter Rationality," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(1), pages 37-54, January.
    28. Jessica Gottlieb, 2016. "Greater Expectations: A Field Experiment to Improve Accountability in Mali," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 60(1), pages 143-157, January.
    29. Cesar Zucco, 2013. "When Payouts Pay Off: Conditional Cash Transfers and Voting Behavior in Brazil 2002–10," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(4), pages 810-822, October.
    30. Eggers, Andrew C., 2014. "Partisanship and Electoral Accountability: Evidence from the UK Expenses Scandal," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 9(4), pages 441-472, December.
    31. Heersink, Boris & Peterson, Brenton D. & Jenkins, Jeffery A., 2017. "Disasters and Elections: Estimating the Net Effect of Damage and Relief in Historical Perspective," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 260-268, April.
    32. Masiero, Giuliano & Santarossa, Michael, 2021. "Natural disasters and electoral outcomes," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    33. Pranab Bardhan & Dilip Mookherjee (ed.), 2006. "Decentralization and Local Governance in Developing Countries: A Comparative Perspective," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262524546, December.
    34. Bechtel, Michael M. & Mannino, Massimo, 2022. "Retrospection, fairness, and economic shocks: how do voters judge policy responses to natural disasters?," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 260-278, April.
    35. Horacio Larreguy & John Marshall & James M SnyderJr., 2020. "Publicising Malfeasance: When the Local Media Structure Facilitates Electoral Accountability in Mexico," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(631), pages 2291-2327.
    36. Claudio Ferraz & Frederico Finan, 2011. "Electoral Accountability and Corruption: Evidence from the Audits of Local Governments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1274-1311, June.
    37. Andrés A. Acuña-Duarte & César A. Salazar, 2021. "Conditioning Factors for Re-election and Incumbency Advantage after a Natural Disaster: Evidence from a Large-scale Earthquake," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(10), pages 1575-1592, October.
    38. Arias, Eric & Balán, Pablo & Larreguy, Horacio & Marshall, John & Querubín, Pablo, 2019. "Information Provision, Voter Coordination, and Electoral Accountability: Evidence from Mexican Social Networks," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 113(2), pages 475-498, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dodlova, Marina & Zudenkova, Galina, 2021. "Incumbents’ performance and political extremism," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    2. Jeroen Klomp, 2020. "Election or Disaster Support?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(1), pages 205-220, January.
    3. Cavalcanti, Francisco, 2018. "Voters sometimes provide the wrong incentives. The lesson of the Brazilian drought industry," MPRA Paper 88317, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Carla Morvan & Sonia Paty, 2024. "Natural disasters and voter gratitude: What is the role of prevention policies?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 198(3), pages 427-465, March.
    5. Stephan Schneider & Sven Kunze, 2021. "Disastrous Discretion: Ambiguous Decision Situations Foster Political Favoritism," KOF Working papers 21-491, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    6. Li, Pei & Lu, Yi & Peng, Lu & Wang, Jin, 2024. "Information, incentives, and environmental governance: Evidence from China’s ambient air quality standards," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    7. Rubén Poblete Cazenave, 2021. "Reputation Shocks and Strategic Responses in Electoral Campaigns," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-049/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. Kaustav Das & Atisha Ghosh & Pushkar Maitra, 2021. "Exogenous Shocks and Electoral Outcomes: Re-examining the Rational Voter Hypothesis," Monash Economics Working Papers 2021-13, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    9. Kaustav Das & Atisha Ghosh & Pushkar Maitra, 2024. "Exogenous shocks and electoral outcomes," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 201(1), pages 145-179, October.
    10. Roberto Ramos & Carlos Sanz, 2018. "Backing the incumbent in difficult times: the electoral impact of wildfires," Working Papers 1810, Banco de España.
    11. Rabah Arezki & Simeon Djankov & Ha Nguyen & Ivan Yotzov, 2022. "The Political Costs of Oil Price Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 9763, CESifo.
    12. Ahlerup, Pelle & Sundström, Aksel & Jagers, Sverker C. & Sjöstedt, Martin, 2024. "Climate shocks, regional favoritism and trust in leaders: Insights from droughts in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    13. Gutiérrez, Emilio & Meriläinen, Jaakko & Ponce de León, Máximo, 2024. "Worth a shot? The political economy of government responsiveness in times of crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    14. Gagliarducci, Stefano & Paserman, M. Daniele & Patacchini, Eleonora, 2019. "Hurricanes, Climate Change Policies and Electoral Accountability," IZA Discussion Papers 12334, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Colonnelli, Emanuele & Lagaras, Spyridon & Ponticelli, Jacopo & Prem, Mounu & Tsoutsoura, Margarita, 2022. "Revealing corruption: Firm and worker level evidence from Brazil," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 1097-1119.
    16. Chauvin, Juan Pablo & Tricaud, Clemence, 2022. "Gender and Electoral Incentives: Evidence from Crisis Response," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12411, Inter-American Development Bank.
    17. Aidt, Toke & Asatryan, Zareh & Badalyan, Lusine, 2024. "Political consequences of (consumer) debt relief," ZEW Discussion Papers 24-030, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    18. Kendall D. Funk & Erica Owen, 2020. "Consequences of an Anti‐Corruption Experiment for Local Government Performance in Brazil," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 444-468, March.
    19. Eric Avis & Claudio Ferraz & Frederico Finan, 2018. "Do Government Audits Reduce Corruption? Estimating the Impacts of Exposing Corrupt Politicians," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(5), pages 1912-1964.
    20. Neugart, Michael & Rode, Johannes, 2021. "Voting after a major flood: Is there a link between democratic experience and retrospective voting?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:188:y:2025:i:c:s0305750x24002985. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.