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Backing the incumbent in difficult times: the electoral impact of wildfires

Author

Listed:
  • Roberto Ramos

    (Banco de España)

  • Carlos Sanz

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

How do voters react to large shocks that are (mostly) outside the control of politicians? We address this question by studying the electoral effects of wildfires in Spain during 1983-2011. Using a difference-in-difference strategy, we find that a large accidental fire up to nine months ahead of a local election increases the incumbent party’s vote share by almost 8 percentage points. We find that a rally-behind-the-leader effect best explains the results. A simple formalization of this mechanism yields an implication – that the effect should be larger for stronger (more voted) incumbents – that is supported by the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Ramos & Carlos Sanz, 2018. "Backing the incumbent in difficult times: the electoral impact of wildfires," Working Papers 1810, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1810
    as

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    File URL: https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/18/Files/dt1810e.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Marinho Bertanha & Eunyi Chung, 2023. "Permutation Tests at Nonparametric Rates," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 118(544), pages 2833-2846, October.
    2. John Paull, 2021. "Pandemic Elections and the Covid-Safe Effect: Incumbents Re-elected in Six Covid-19 Safe Havens," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 12(1), pages 17-24.
    3. Matteo Gamalerio & Massimo Morelli & Carlos Sanz & Albert Solé-Ollé & Pilar Sorribas-Navarro & Olle Folke & Johanna Rickne, 2020. "The Rise of New Political Parties in Western Democracies / El auge de nuevos partidos políticos en las democracias occidentales / L’ascens de nous partits polítics en les democràcies occidentals," IEB Reports ieb_report_2_2020, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    voting behavior; rally behind the leader; difference-in-differences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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