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The Political Cost of Being Soft on Crime: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

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  • Drago, Francesco
  • Galbiati, Roberto
  • Sobbrio, Francesco

Abstract

We provide evidence about voters' response to crime control policies. We exploit a natural experiment arising from the Italian 2006 collective pardon releasing about one third of the prison population. The pardon created idiosyncratic incentives to recidivate across released individuals and municipalities. We show that municipalities where resident pardoned individuals have a higher incentive to recidivate experienced higher recidivism. Moreover, in these municipalities: i) newspapers were more likely to report crime news involving pardoned individuals; ii) voters held worse beliefs on the incumbent governments ability to control crime and iii) with respect to the previous elections, the incumbent national government experienced a worse electoral performance in the April 2008 national elections relative to the opposition coalition. Overall, our findings indicate that voters keep incumbent politicians accountable by conditioning their vote on the observed effects of their policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Drago, Francesco & Galbiati, Roberto & Sobbrio, Francesco, 2017. "The Political Cost of Being Soft on Crime: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 12097, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12097
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    2. Vlachos, Stephanos, 2022. "On war and political radicalization: Evidence from forced conscription into the Wehrmacht," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    3. Mathieu Couttenier & Sophie Hatte & Mathias Thoenig & Stephanos Vlachos, 2019. "The Logic of Fear: Populism and Media Coverage of Immigrant Crimes," Working Papers halshs-02095658, HAL.
    4. Russo, Giuseppe & Salsano, Francesco, 2019. "Electoral systems and immigration," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    5. Marco Di Cataldo & Nicola Mastrorocco, 2022. "Organized Crime, Captured Politicians, and the Allocation of Public Resources [“Mafiaand Public Spending: Evidence on the Fiscal Multiplier from a Quasi-Experiment]," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(3), pages 774-839.
    6. Stefano Castriota & Mirco Tonin, 2019. "Stay or Flee? Probability versus Severity of Punishment in Hit-and-run Accidents," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS65, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    7. Francesca Calamunci & Francesco Drago, 2020. "The Economic Impact of Organized Crime Infiltration in the Legal Economy: Evidence from the Judicial Administration of Organized Crime Firms," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 6(2), pages 275-297, July.
    8. Mario F. Carillo, 2022. "Fascistville: Mussolini’s new towns and the persistence of neo-fascism," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 527-567, December.
    9. Mastrorocco, Nicola & Minale, Luigi, 2018. "News media and crime perceptions: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 230-255.
    10. Meier, Armando N. & Levav, Jonathan & Meier, Stephan, 2020. "Early Release and Recidivism," IZA Discussion Papers 13035, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Jiménez, Bruno, 2023. "The Political economy of the minimum wage," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Accountability; Voting; Natural experiment; Crime; Recidivism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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