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Retrospective Voting in Big-City US Mayoral Elections

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  • Hopkins, Daniel J.
  • Pettingill, Lindsay M.

Abstract

Retrospective voting is a central explanation for voters’ support of incumbents. Yet, despite the variety of conditions facing American cities, past research has devoted little attention to retrospective voting for mayors. This paper first develops hypotheses about how local retrospective voting might differ from its national analog, due to both differing information sources and the presence of national benchmarks. It then analyzes retrospective voting using the largest data set on big-city mayoral elections between 1990 and 2011 to date. Neither crime rates nor property values consistently influence incumbent mayors’ vote shares, nor do changes in local conditions. However, low city-level unemployment relative to national unemployment correlates with higher incumbent support. The urban voter is a particular type of retrospective voter, one who compares local economic performance to conditions elsewhere. Moreover, these effects appear to be present only in cities that dominate their media markets, suggesting media outlets’ role in facilitating retrospective voting.

Suggested Citation

  • Hopkins, Daniel J. & Pettingill, Lindsay M., 2018. "Retrospective Voting in Big-City US Mayoral Elections," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 697-714, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:pscirm:v:6:y:2018:i:04:p:697-714_00
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    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/12b1pd86do8s6p35b4jqn66t0p is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/12b1pd86do8s6p35b4jqn66t0p is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Francesco Drago & Roberto Galbiati & Francesco Sobbrio, 2020. "The Political Cost of Being Soft on Crime: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(6), pages 3305-3336.
    4. Banaszewska, Monika & Bischoff, Ivo, 2021. "Grants-in-aid and election outcomes in recipient jurisdictions: The impact of EU funds on mayoral elections in Poland," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Francesco Drago & Roberto Galbiati & Francesco Sobbrio, 2020. "The Political Cost of Being Soft on Crime: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(6), pages 3305-3336.
    6. Arroyo Abad, Leticia & Maurer, Noel, 2021. "Do Pandemics Shape Elections? Retrospective voting in the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic in the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 15678, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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