Voter response to natural disaster aid : quasi-experimental evidence from drought relief payments in Mexico
The paper estimates the effects on presidential election returns in Mexico of a government climatic contingency transfer that is allocated through rainfall-indexed insurance. The analysis uses the discontinuity in payments that slightly deviate from a pre-established threshold, based on rainfall accumulation measured at local weather stations. It turns out that voters reward the incumbent presidential party for delivering drought relief compensation. The paper finds that receiving indemnity payments leads to significantly greater average electoral support for the incumbent party of approximately 7.6 percentage points. The analysis suggests that the incumbent party is rewarded by disaster aid recipients and punished by non-recipients. The paper contributes to the literature on retrospective voting by providing evidence that voters evaluate government actions and respond to disaster spending.
|Date of creation:||01 Apr 2014|
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- Marco Manacorda & Edward Miguel & Andrea Vigorito, 2009.
"Government transfers and political support,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
28519, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Marco Manacorda & Edward Miguel & Andrea Vigorito, 2009. "Government Transfers and Political Support," CEP Discussion Papers dp0912, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Manacorda, Marco & Miguel, Edward & Vigorito, Andrea, 2009. "Government Transfers and Political Support," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt9n42t9sw, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Manacorda, Marco & Miguel, Edward & Vigorito, Andrea, 2009. "Government Transfers and Political Support," CEPR Discussion Papers 7163, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marco Manacorda & Edward Miguel & Andrea Vigorito, 2009. "Government Transfers and Political Support," NBER Working Papers 14702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Alan Fuchs & Hendrik Wolff, 2011.
"Concept and Unintended Consequences of Weather Index Insurance: The Case of Mexico,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(2), pages 505-511.
- Fuchs, Alan & Wolff, Hendrik, 2011. "Concept and Unintended Consequences of Weather Index Insurance: The Case of Mexico," IZA Discussion Papers 6234, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Russell Sobel & Peter Leeson, 2006. "Government's response to Hurricane Katrina: A public choice analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 55-73, April.
- Healy, Andrew & Malhotra, Neil, 2010. "Random Events, Economic Losses, and Retrospective Voting: Implications for Democratic Competence," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 5(2), pages 193-208, August.
- Stephan Litschig & Kevin Morrison, 2010. "Government spending and re-election: Quasi-experimental evidence from Brazilian municipalities," Economics Working Papers 1233, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2012.
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