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Voter response to natural disaster aid : quasi-experimental evidence from drought relief payments in Mexico

Author

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  • Fuchs, Alan
  • Rodriguez-Chamussy, Lourdes

Abstract

The paper estimates the effects on presidential election returns in Mexico of a government climatic contingency transfer that is allocated through rainfall-indexed insurance. The analysis uses the discontinuity in payments that slightly deviate from a pre-established threshold, based on rainfall accumulation measured at local weather stations. It turns out that voters reward the incumbent presidential party for delivering drought relief compensation. The paper finds that receiving indemnity payments leads to significantly greater average electoral support for the incumbent party of approximately 7.6 percentage points. The analysis suggests that the incumbent party is rewarded by disaster aid recipients and punished by non-recipients. The paper contributes to the literature on retrospective voting by providing evidence that voters evaluate government actions and respond to disaster spending.

Suggested Citation

  • Fuchs, Alan & Rodriguez-Chamussy, Lourdes, 2014. "Voter response to natural disaster aid : quasi-experimental evidence from drought relief payments in Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6836, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6836
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    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/04/07/000158349_20140407153736/Rendered/PDF/WPS6836.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:cup:apsrev:v:103:y:2009:i:03:p:387-406_99 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Russell Sobel & Peter Leeson, 2006. "Government's response to Hurricane Katrina: A public choice analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 55-73, April.
    3. Cole, Shawn & Healy, Andrew & Werker, Eric, 2012. "Do voters demand responsive governments? Evidence from Indian disaster relief," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 167-181.
    4. Stephan Litschig & Kevin Morrison, 2010. "Government spending and re-election: Quasi-experimental evidence from Brazilian municipalities," Economics Working Papers 1233, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2012.
    5. Healy, Andrew & Malhotra, Neil, 2010. "Random Events, Economic Losses, and Retrospective Voting: Implications for Democratic Competence," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 5(2), pages 193-208, August.
    6. Marco Manacorda & Edward Miguel & Andrea Vigorito, 2011. "Government Transfers and Political Support," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 1-28, July.
    7. Lourdes Rodríguez Chamussy, 2015. "Local Electoral Rewards from Centralized Social Programs: Are Mayors Getting the Credit?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 88073, Inter-American Development Bank.
    8. Lourdes Rodríguez Chamussy, 2015. "Local Electoral Rewards from Centralized Social Programs: Are Mayors Getting the Credit?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6802, Inter-American Development Bank.
    9. Alan Fuchs & Hendrik Wolff, 2011. "Concept and Unintended Consequences of Weather Index Insurance: The Case of Mexico," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(2), pages 505-511.
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    Cited by:

    1. Karim, Azreen & Noy, Ilan, 2015. "The (mis) allocation of public spending in a low income country: Evidence from disaster risk reduction spending in Bangladesh," Working Paper Series 4194, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hazard Risk Management; Global Environment Facility; Natural Disasters; Technology Industry; Rural Poverty Reduction;

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