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Government Transfers and Political Support

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  • Manacorda, Marco
  • Miguel, Edward
  • Vigorito, Andrea

Abstract

We estimate the impact of a large anti-poverty program – the Uruguayan PANES – on political support for the government that implemented it. The program mainly consisted of a monthly cash transfer for a period of roughly two and half years. Using the discontinuity in program assignment based on a pre-treatment score, we find that beneficiary households are 21 to 28 percentage points more likely to favor the current government (relative to the previous government). Impacts on political support are larger among poorer households and for those near the center of the political spectrum, consistent with the probabilistic voting model in political economy. Effects persist after the cash transfer program ends. We estimate that the annual cost of increasing government political support by 1 percentage point is roughly 0.9% of annual government social expenditures.

Suggested Citation

  • Manacorda, Marco & Miguel, Edward & Vigorito, Andrea, 2009. "Government Transfers and Political Support," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt9n42t9sw, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ciders:qt9n42t9sw
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    Cited by:

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    2. Sinem H. Ayhan & Selin Pelek, 2020. "State Dependence in Welfare Benefits in a Non‐Welfare Context," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(3), pages 711-735, September.
    3. Fernando Borraz & Juan Dubra & Daniel Ferrés & Leandro Zipitría, 2009. "Supermarket Entry and its effect on small stores in Montevideo, 1998 to 2007," Documentos de trabajo 2009005, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    4. Thomas Husted & David Nickerson, 2021. "Private Support for Public Disaster Aid," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-19, June.
    5. Amarante, Véronica & Ferrando, Mery & Vigorito, Andrea, 2011. "School Attendance, Child Labor and Cash Transfer: An impact evaluation of PANES," PEP Policy Briefs 164618, Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP).
    6. Michael M. Bechtel & Jens Hainmueller, 2011. "How Lasting Is Voter Gratitude? An Analysis of the Short‐ and Long‐Term Electoral Returns to Beneficial Policy," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(4), pages 852-868, October.

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