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Selfish and Prospective: Theory and Evidence of Pocketbook Voting

  • Elinder, Mikael


    (Uppsala University)

  • Jordahl, Henrik


    (Research Institute of Industrial Economics)

  • Poutvaara, Panu


    (University of Munich)

We present and test a theory of prospective and retrospective pocketbook voting. Focusing on two large reforms in Sweden, we establish a causal chain from policies to sizeable individual gains and losses and then to voting. The Social Democrats proposed budget cuts affecting parents with young children before the 1994 election, but made generous promises to the same group before the 1998 election. Since parents with older children were largely unaffected we use a difference-in-differences strategy for identification. We find clear evidence of prospective pocketbook voting. Voters respond to campaign promises but not to the later implementation of the reforms.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 3763.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as 'Promises, Policies and Pocketbook Voting' in: European Economic Review, 2015, 75, 177–194
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3763
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