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Shaken Politics: The Electoral Outcomes of Disasters and Social Capital

Author

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  • Gualtieri, Giovanni

    (National Research Council, Italy)

  • Nicolini, Marcella

    (University of Pavia)

  • Sabatini, Fabio

    (Sapienza University of Rome)

  • Ventura, Marco

    (Sapienza University of Rome)

Abstract

We study the electoral repercussions of the L'Aquila earthquake in 2009, one of Italy's most catastrophic post-WWII seismic events. We construct a unique municipality-level dataset, combining high-resolution data on the ground acceleration recorded during the earthquake with European election results and social capital metrics. Our findings indicate that the intensity of the shock positively influenced support for the incumbent national government but provided no electoral advantage to local incumbents. Analyzing potential transmission mechanisms, we find that relief measures did not automatically translate into political rewards. Instead, social capital played a pivotal role in shaping post--disaster electoral outcomes. The national government's electoral gains were concentrated in municipalities with a low density of civic organizations, where citizens relied predominantly on political institutions for assistance. Individual level evidence from survey data further supports our findings. Nonetheless, the impact of the earthquake was not enduring. In the subsequent elections, the incumbent government experienced a decline in support in the very municipalities where it had initially gained favor following the disaster.

Suggested Citation

  • Gualtieri, Giovanni & Nicolini, Marcella & Sabatini, Fabio & Ventura, Marco, 2025. "Shaken Politics: The Electoral Outcomes of Disasters and Social Capital," IZA Discussion Papers 17758, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17758
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H10 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - General
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Z1 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics

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