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Wildfire Exposure Increases Pro-Environment Voting within Democratic but Not Republican Areas

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  • HAZLETT, CHAD
  • MILDENBERGER, MATTO

Abstract

One political barrier to climate reforms is the temporal mismatch between short-term policy costs and long-term policy benefits. Will public support for climate reforms increase as climate-related disasters make the short-term costs of inaction more salient? Leveraging variation in the timing of Californian wildfires, we evaluate how exposure to a climate-related hazard influences political behavior rather than self-reported attitudes or behavioral intentions. We show that wildfires increased support for costly, climate-related ballot measures by 5 to 6 percentage points for those living within 5 kilometers of a recent wildfire, decaying to near zero beyond a distance of 15 kilometers. This effect is concentrated in Democratic-voting areas, and it is nearly zero in Republican-dominated areas. We conclude that experienced climate threats can enhance willingness-to-act but largely in places where voters are known to believe in climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Hazlett, Chad & Mildenberger, Matto, 2020. "Wildfire Exposure Increases Pro-Environment Voting within Democratic but Not Republican Areas," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1359-1365, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:114:y:2020:i:4:p:1359-1365_28
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    Cited by:

    1. Mehic, Adrian, 2023. "The electoral consequences of environmental accidents: Evidence from Chernobyl," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    2. Sonia Akter & R. Quentin Grafton, 2021. "Do fires discriminate? Socio-economic disadvantage, wildfire hazard exposure and the Australian 2019–20 ‘Black Summer’ fires," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-21, April.
    3. Matthew T. Ballew & Jennifer R. Marlon & Matthew H. Goldberg & Edward W. Maibach & Seth A. Rosenthal & Emily Aiken & Anthony Leiserowitz, 2022. "Changing minds about global warming: vicarious experience predicts self-reported opinion change in the USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 1-25, August.
    4. Cerqua, Augusto & Ferrante, Chiara & Letta, Marco, 2023. "Electoral earthquake: Local shocks and authoritarian voting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    5. Italo Colantone & Livio Di Lonardo & Yotam Margalit & Marco Percoco, 2022. "The Political Consequences of Green Policies: Evidence from Italy," CESifo Working Paper Series 9599, CESifo.
    6. Mehic, Adrian, 2020. "The Electoral Consequences of Nuclear Fallout: Evidence from Chernobyl," Working Papers 2020:23, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    7. Diekert, Florian & Goeschl, Timo & König-Kersting, Christian, 2024. "The Behavioral Economics of Extreme Event Attribution," Working Papers 0741, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    8. Italo Colantone & Livio Di Donaldo & Yotam Margalit & Marco Percoco, 2022. "The Political Consequences of Green Policies: Evidence from Italy," Working Papers 2022.28, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    9. Paul M. Lohmann & Andreas Kontoleon, 2023. "Do Flood and Heatwave Experiences Shape Climate Opinion? Causal Evidence from Flooding and Heatwaves in England and Wales," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 86(1), pages 263-304, October.
    10. Jessie W. Y. Ko & Shengquan Ni & Alexander Taylor & Xiusi Chen & Yicong Huang & Avinash Kumar & Sadeem Alsudais & Zuozhi Wang & Xiaozhen Liu & Wei Wang & Chen Li & Suellen Hopfer, 2024. "How the experience of California wildfires shape Twitter climate change framings," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 1-21, January.
    11. Colantone, Italo & Di Lonardo, Livio & Margalit, Yotan & Percoco, Marco, 2022. "The Political Consequences of Green Policies: Evidence from Italy," FEEM Working Papers 327326, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    12. Italo Colantone & Livio Di Lonardo & Yotam Margalit & Marco Percoco, 2022. "The Political Consequences of Green Policies: Evidence from Italy," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 22176, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

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