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Extreme weather and the politics of climate change: A study of campaign finance and elections

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  • Liao, Yanjun
  • Ruiz Junco, Pablo

Abstract

This paper studies how extreme weather and natural disasters affect campaign contributions and elections. Weather events associated with climate change may influence these outcomes by leading voters to re-evaluate the incumbent politician’s environmental position. In a short-run analysis, we find that the number of online contributions to the Democratic Party increases in response to higher weekly temperature, with a larger effect in counties with more anti-environment incumbent politicians. In a medium-run analysis, we find that, when a natural disaster strikes, the election becomes more competitive if the incumbent leans more anti-environment: total campaign contributions increase for both candidates and the increase is skewed toward the challenger, the race is more likely to be contested, and the incumbent is less likely to be re-elected. These results suggest that extreme weather events carry a moderate electoral penalty for anti-environment incumbents during 1990–2012. This mechanism will likely play a more important role as the public awareness of climate change continues to increase.

Suggested Citation

  • Liao, Yanjun & Ruiz Junco, Pablo, 2022. "Extreme weather and the politics of climate change: A study of campaign finance and elections," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:111:y:2022:i:c:s0095069621001078
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102550
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change beliefs; Natural disasters; Campaign finance; Elections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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