IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/poleco/v58y2019icp245-261.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can media drive the electorate? The impact of media coverage on voting intentions

Author

Listed:
  • Dewenter, Ralf
  • Linder, Melissa
  • Thomas, Tobias

Abstract

A growing literature uses media data to explain perception and behaviour in the economic and political context. In this paper, we investigate how media coverage affects political preferences, namely voting intention. For our empirical analysis, we merge 14 years of human-coded data obtained from leading media in Germany with results of the comprehensive German Politbarometer survey from February 1998 through December 2012. In contrast to the existing literature, we do not utilize access to certain media outlets, but use the tonality of articles and newscasts on political parties and politicians based on human coded media data. To account for endogeneity, we employ instrumental variable probit estimations. In addition, we control for a multitude of (internal) personal characteristics, such as age, and gender, as well as for (external) macroeconomic variables, such as business climate, unemployment, and inflation. The results show that media coverage of a political party has a positive and significant effect on the voting intention for this party. When media outlets cover a political party more positively, the electorate has a greater tendency to vote for it. Hence, we conclude that the electoral success or failure of political parties is at least partially caused by the media coverage on them. This hints on the special responsibility of media in democracies.

Suggested Citation

  • Dewenter, Ralf & Linder, Melissa & Thomas, Tobias, 2019. "Can media drive the electorate? The impact of media coverage on voting intentions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 245-261.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:58:y:2019:i:c:p:245-261
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2018.12.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268018301678
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2018.12.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kauder, Björn & Potrafke, Niklas, 2015. "Just hire your spouse! Evidence from a political scandal in Bavaria," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 42-54.
    2. Karel Jan Alsem & Steven Brakman & Lex Hoogduin & Gerard Kuper, 2008. "The impact of newspapers on consumer confidence: does spin bias exist?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(5), pages 531-539.
    3. Dewenter, Ralf & Heimeshoff, Ulrich, 2015. "More ads more revs: A note on media bias in review likelihood," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 156-161.
    4. Gambaro, Marco & Puglisi, Riccardo, 2015. "What do ads buy? Daily coverage of listed companies on the Italian press," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 41-57.
    5. Ruben Enikolopov & Maria Petrova & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2011. "Media and Political Persuasion: Evidence from Russia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3253-3285, December.
    6. Simon P. Anderson & John McLaren, 2012. "Media Mergers And Media Bias With Rational Consumers," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 831-859, August.
    7. Beckmann Klaus B. & Dewenter Ralf & Thomas Tobias, 2017. "Can News Draw Blood? The Impact of Media Coverage on the Number and Severity of Terror Attacks," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 23(1), pages 1-16, January.
    8. James M. Snyder & David Strömberg, 2010. "Press Coverage and Political Accountability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(2), pages 355-408, April.
    9. Timothy Besley & Andrea Prat, 2006. "Handcuffs for the Grabbing Hand? Media Capture and Government Accountability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 720-736, June.
    10. Ruben Durante & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2015. "Attack When the World is Not Watching? International Media and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict," Working Papers hal-03459981, HAL.
    11. Chadi, Adrian, 2015. "Concerns about the Euro and happiness in Germany during times of crisis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 126-146.
    12. Friebel, Guido & Heinz, Matthias, 2014. "Media slant against foreign owners: Downsizing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 97-106.
    13. Ruben Durante & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2018. "Attack When the World Is Not Watching? US News and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(3), pages 1085-1133.
    14. Matthew Gentzkow & Nathan Petek & Jesse M. Shapiro & Michael Sinkinson, 2015. "Do Newspapers Serve The State? Incumbent Party Influence On The Us Press, 1869–1928," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 29-61, February.
    15. Horrace, William C. & Oaxaca, Ronald L., 2006. "Results on the bias and inconsistency of ordinary least squares for the linear probability model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 321-327, March.
    16. Ralf Dewenter & Ulrich Heimeshoff & Tobias Thomas, 2016. "Media Coverage and Car Manufacturers' Sales," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 976-982.
    17. Dewenter Ralf & Heimeshoff Ulrich, 2014. "Media Bias and Advertising: Evidence from a German Car Magazine," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(1), pages 77-94, April.
    18. Garz, Marcel, 2018. "Retirement, consumption of political information, and political knowledge," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 109-119.
    19. Tim Groseclose & Jeffrey Milyo, 2005. "A Measure of Media Bias," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(4), pages 1191-1237.
    20. Stefano DellaVigna & Ethan Kaplan, 2007. "The Fox News Effect: Media Bias and Voting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(3), pages 1187-1234.
    21. Michael J. Lamla & Thomas Maag, 2012. "The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professional Forecasters," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1325-1350, October.
    22. Sobbrio, Francesco & Navarra, Pietro, 2010. "Electoral participation and communicative voting in Europe," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 185-207, June.
    23. Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2010. "What Drives Media Slant? Evidence From U.S. Daily Newspapers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(1), pages 35-71, January.
    24. Benesch, Christine & Loretz, Simon & Stadelmann, David & Thomas, Tobias, 2019. "Media coverage and immigration worries: Econometric evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 52-67.
    25. Larcinese, Valentino & Sircar, Indraneel, 2017. "Crime and punishment the British way: Accountability channels following the MPs’ expenses scandal," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 75-99.
    26. Jonathan Reuter & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Do Ads Influence Editors? Advertising and Bias in the Financial Media," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 121(1), pages 197-227.
    27. Heinz, Matthias & Swinnen, Johan, 2015. "Media slant in economic news: A factor 20," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 18-20.
    28. Grimmer, Justin & Stewart, Brandon M., 2013. "Text as Data: The Promise and Pitfalls of Automatic Content Analysis Methods for Political Texts," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 267-297, July.
    29. Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro & Michael Sinkinson, 2011. "The Effect of Newspaper Entry and Exit on Electoral Politics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 2980-3018, December.
    30. Wayne R. Dunham, 2013. "Framing the Right Suspects: Measuring Media Bias," Journal of Media Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 122-147, September.
    31. Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro & Daniel F. Stone, 2014. "Media Bias in the Marketplace: Theory," NBER Working Papers 19880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Bernhardt, Dan & Krasa, Stefan & Polborn, Mattias, 2008. "Political polarization and the electoral effects of media bias," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(5-6), pages 1092-1104, June.
    33. Andrews,Donald W. K. & Stock,James H. (ed.), 2005. "Identification and Inference for Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521844413.
    34. Thomas Eisensee & David Strömberg, 2007. "News Droughts, News Floods, and U. S. Disaster Relief," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(2), pages 693-728.
    35. Garz, Marcel, 2013. "Unemployment expectations, excessive pessimism, and news coverage," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 156-168.
    36. Marcel Garz, 2014. "Good news and bad news: evidence of media bias in unemployment reports," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 161(3), pages 499-515, December.
    37. Kim, Jae-On & Petrocik, John R. & Enokson, Stephen N., 1975. "Voter Turnout Among the American States: Systemic and Individual Components," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(1), pages 107-123, March.
    38. van Raaij, W. Fred, 1989. "Economic news, expectations and macro-economic behaviour," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 473-493.
    39. Jonathan S. Morris, 2007. "Slanted Objectivity? Perceived Media Bias, Cable News Exposure, and Political Attitudes," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 88(3), pages 707-728, September.
    40. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6l0phu0dat8eg98t75kpqihcid is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Grechyna, Daryna, 2023. "Parenthood and political engagement," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    2. Bernhardt, Lea & Dewenter, Ralf & Thomas, Tobias, 2020. "Measuring partisan media bias in US Newscasts from 2001-2012," Working Paper 183/2020, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg, revised 15 Nov 2022.
    3. Gerling, Lena & Kellermann, Kim Leonie, 2019. "The impact of election information shocks on populist party preferences: Evidence from Germany," CIW Discussion Papers 3/2019, University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics (CIW).
    4. Isler, Ozan & Flew, Terry & Erol, Isil & Dulleck, Uwe, 2021. "Market news and credibility cues improve house price predictions: An experiment on bounded rationality in real estate," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    5. Ralf Dewenter & Uwe Dulleck & Tobias Thomas, 2020. "Does the 4th estate deliver? The Political Coverage Index and its application to media capture," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 292-328, September.
    6. Gerling, Lena & Kellermann, Kim Leonie, 2022. "Contagious populists: The impact of election information shocks on populist party preferences in Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    7. Bernhardt, Lea & Dewenter, Ralf & Thomas, Tobias, 2020. "Watchdog or loyal servant? Political media bias in US newscasts," DICE Discussion Papers 348, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    8. Hirsch, Patrick & Köhler, Ekkehard A. & Feld, Lars P. & Thomas, Tobias, 2020. ""Whatever it takes!": How tonality of TV-news affects government bond yield spreads during crises," Freiburg Discussion Papers on Constitutional Economics 20/9, Walter Eucken Institut e.V..
    9. Garz, Marcel & Sood, Gaurav & Stone, Daniel F. & Wallace, Justin, 2020. "The supply of media slant across outlets and demand for slant within outlets: Evidence from US presidential campaign news," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    10. Hugo Oriola & Matthieu Picault, 2023. "Opportunistic Political Central Bank Coverage: Does media coverage of ECB's Monetary Policy Impacts German Political Parties' Popularity?," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-30, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    11. Thomas, Tobias, 2020. "Zur Rolle der Medien in der Demokratie," Research Papers 12, EcoAustria – Institute for Economic Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ralf Dewenter & Uwe Dulleck & Tobias Thomas, 2020. "Does the 4th estate deliver? The Political Coverage Index and its application to media capture," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 292-328, September.
    2. Bernhardt, Lea & Dewenter, Ralf & Thomas, Tobias, 2023. "Measuring partisan media bias in US newscasts from 2001 to 2012," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Bernhardt, Lea & Dewenter, Ralf & Thomas, Tobias, 2020. "Measuring partisan media bias in US Newscasts from 2001-2012," Working Paper 183/2020, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg, revised 15 Nov 2022.
    4. Bernhardt, Lea & Dewenter, Ralf & Thomas, Tobias, 2020. "Watchdog or loyal servant? Political media bias in US newscasts," DICE Discussion Papers 348, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    5. Dewenter, Ralf & Dulleck, Uwe & Thomas, Tobias, 2018. "The political coverage index and its application to government capture," Research Papers 6, EcoAustria – Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Dewenter, Ralf & Linder, Melissa & Thomas, Tobias, 2018. "Can Media Drive the Electorate? The Impact of Media Coverage on Party Affiliation and Voting Intentions," Working Paper 179/2018, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
    7. Thomas, Tobias, 2020. "Zur Rolle der Medien in der Demokratie," Research Papers 12, EcoAustria – Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Hirsch, Patrick & Köhler, Ekkehard A. & Feld, Lars P. & Thomas, Tobias, 2020. ""Whatever it takes!": How tonality of TV-news affects government bond yield spreads during crises," Freiburg Discussion Papers on Constitutional Economics 20/9, Walter Eucken Institut e.V..
    9. Wolfinger, Julia & Köhler, Ekkehard A. & Feld, Lars P. & Thomas, Tobias, 2018. "57 Channels (And Nothin On): Does TV-News on the Eurozone affect Government Bond Yield Spreads?," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181610, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Benesch, Christine & Loretz, Simon & Stadelmann, David & Thomas, Tobias, 2019. "Media coverage and immigration worries: Econometric evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 52-67.
    11. Dewenter, Ralf & Dulleck, Uwe & Thomas, Tobias, 2016. "Does the 4th estate deliver? Towards more direct measure of political media bias," Working Paper 175/2016, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
    12. Friebel, Guido & Heinz, Matthias, 2014. "Media slant against foreign owners: Downsizing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 97-106.
    13. Piolatto, Amedeo & Schuett, Florian, 2015. "Media competition and electoral politics," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 80-93.
    14. Sendhil Mullainathan & Andrei Shleifer, 2005. "The Market for News," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1031-1053, September.
    15. Sobbrio, Francesco, 2014. "Citizen-editors' endogenous information acquisition and news accuracy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 43-53.
    16. Diermeier, Matthias & Goecke, Henry & Niehues, Judith & Thomas, Tobias, 2017. "Impact of inequality-related media coverage on the concerns of the citzens," DICE Discussion Papers 258, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    17. Graham Beattie & Ruben Durante & Brian Knight & Ananya Sen, 2021. "Advertising Spending and Media Bias: Evidence from News Coverage of Car Safety Recalls," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 698-719, February.
    18. Garz, Marcel & Sörensen, Jil, 2017. "Politicians under investigation: The news Media's effect on the likelihood of resignation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 82-91.
    19. Strömberg, David & Prat, Andrea, 2011. "The Political Economy of Mass Media," CEPR Discussion Papers 8246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Biondo, A.E. & Pluchino, A. & Rapisarda, A., 2018. "Modeling surveys effects in political competitions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 714-726.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political preferences; Voting intention; Media impact;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • D - Microeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:58:y:2019:i:c:p:245-261. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505544 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.