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Unemployment expectations, excessive pessimism, and news coverage

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  • Garz, Marcel

Abstract

This study employs monthly survey data and information obtained from media content analyses to investigate the potential link between (negativity in) economic news coverage and the pessimism in German unemployment expectations. For the period from 2001 to 2009, time-series estimates do not indicate a link in the short-run, but the cumulative effects of repeated media coverage affect long-run attitudes. A single negative report has a long-term effect similar to that of a positive one, but the quantitative dominance of negative over positive news causes an asymmetric reaction in unemployment expectations, which promotes pessimism.

Suggested Citation

  • Garz, Marcel, 2013. "Unemployment expectations, excessive pessimism, and news coverage," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 156-168.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joepsy:v:34:y:2013:i:c:p:156-168
    DOI: 10.1016/j.joep.2012.09.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment expectations; Economic news coverage; Pessimism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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