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Fears and realisations of employment insecurity

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  • Dickerson, Andy
  • Green, Francis

Abstract

We investigate the validity of subjective data on expectations of job loss and on the probability of re-employment consequent on job loss, by examining associations between expectations and realisations. We find that subjective expectations data reveal private information about subsequent realisations both of job loss and of subsequent re-employment. We also compare the use of verbal and numerical descriptors for subjective probability scales. As predictors of subsequent job loss, the expectations data perform better with numerical than with ordinal verbal descriptors. On average, employees overestimate the chance of losing their job; while they underestimate the difficulty of job replacement. We recommend that survey items on employment insecurity should be explicit about each risk under investigation, and utilise a cardinal probability scale with discrete numerical descriptors.

Suggested Citation

  • Dickerson, Andy & Green, Francis, 2012. "Fears and realisations of employment insecurity," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 198-210.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:19:y:2012:i:2:p:198-210
    DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2011.10.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Reichert, Arndt R. & Tauchmann, Harald, 2017. "Workforce reduction, subjective job insecurity, and mental health," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 187-212.
    2. Simone Moriconi & Giovanni Peri, 2015. "Country-Specific Preferences and Employment Rates in Europe," CREA Discussion Paper Series 15-11, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
    3. Hetschko, Clemens & Schöb, Ronnie & Wolf, Tobias, 2016. "Income support, (un-)employment and well-being," Discussion Papers 2016/15, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    4. Simone Moriconi & Giovanni Peri, 2015. "Country-Specific Preferences and Employment Rates in Europe," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def029, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    5. Seamus McGuinness & Mark Wooden & Markus Hahn, 2014. "The perceived probability of job loss and future labour market outcomes," Industrial Relations Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 329-347, July.
    6. Francis Green, 2015. "Health effects of job insecurity," IZA World of Labor, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), pages 212-212, December.
    7. John Gathergood, "undated". "Unemployment Expectations, Credit Commitments and Psychological Health," Discussion Papers 12/03, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    8. Sonja C. Kassenboehmer & Sonja G. Schatz, 2014. "Re-employment Expectations and the Eye of Providence," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 697, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    9. Andreas Knabe & Steffen Rätzel, 2010. "Better an insecure job than no job at all? Unemployment, job insecurity and subjective wellbeing," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 2486-2494.
    10. Clemens Hetschko, 2016. "On the misery of losing self-employment," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 461-478, August.
    11. Benzarour, Choukri, 2016. "الإدارة العامة: كيف يمكن الإفلات من لعنة أمراضها؟
      [Public Administration diseases: How can we escape from its curse?]
      ," MPRA Paper 75008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Seamus McGuinness & Mark Wooden & Markus Hahn, 2012. "Job Insecurity and Future Labour Market Outcomes," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2012n12, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    13. Green, Francis, 2011. "Unpacking the misery multiplier: How employability modifies the impacts of unemployment and job insecurity on life satisfaction and mental health," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 265-276, March.
    14. Lokshin, Michael & Gimpelson, Vladimir & Oshchepkov, Aleksey, 2012. "Explaining the Dynamics in Perceptions of Job Insecurity in Russia," IZA Discussion Papers 6422, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    15. Garz, Marcel, 2013. "Unemployment expectations, excessive pessimism, and news coverage," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 156-168.
    16. Benzarour, Choukri, 2016. "لإدارة العامة: بعض الأمراض المستعصية و طرق مواجهته
      [Public Administration: some incurable diseases and ways to deal with them]
      ," MPRA Paper 80229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Tom Coupé, 2018. "Robots, Job Characteristics and Job Insecurity," Working Papers in Economics 18/05, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    18. Francis Green & Alan Felstead & Duncan Gallie & Hande Inanc, 2016. "Job-Related Well-Being Through the Great Recession," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 389-411, February.
    19. Kassenboehmer, Sonja C. & Schatz, Sonja G., 2017. "Re-employment expectations and realisations: Prediction errors and behavioural responses," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 161-176.
    20. Elena Cottini & Paolo Ghinetti, 2016. "Employment insecurity and employees’ health in Denmark," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def045, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    21. Russell, Helen & McGinnity, Fran & Kingston, Gillian, 2014. "Gender and the Quality of Work: From Boom to Recession," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number BKMNEXT264.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Job insecurity; Expectations; Employability; Job loss;

    JEL classification:

    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

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