IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v91y2001i4p1126-1134.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Longevity Expectations and Death: Can People Predict Their Own Demise?

Author

Listed:
  • V. Kerry Smith
  • Donald H. Taylor
  • Frank A. Sloan

Abstract

Using four waves of the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS) this paper tests whether longevity expectations predict actual mortality at the individual level. The results suggest longevity expectations do predict mortality reasonably well. Serious health shocks and new activity limitations do reduce longevity expectations. Given one is prepared to accept that other unobserved causal factors have the same means for those who die and those who survive in each wave it is possible to test whether longevity expectations can serve as a sufficient statistic. The test findings imply that they do not appear to reflect all that individuals know about their personal odds of living to seventy-five.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • V. Kerry Smith & Donald H. Taylor & Frank A. Sloan, 2001. "Longevity Expectations and Death: Can People Predict Their Own Demise?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1126-1134, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:91:y:2001:i:4:p:1126-1134
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.91.4.1126
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.91.4.1126
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael D. Hurd & Daniel McFadden & Angela Merrill, 2001. "Predictors of Mortality among the Elderly," NBER Chapters, in: Themes in the Economics of Aging, pages 171-198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. F. Thomas Juster & Richard Suzman, 1995. "An Overview of the Health and Retirement Study," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30, pages 7-56.
    3. Van de Ven, Wynand P. M. M. & Van Praag, Bernard M. S., 1981. "The demand for deductibles in private health insurance : A probit model with sample selection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 229-252, November.
    4. V. Kerry Smith & Donald H. Taylor & Frank A. Sloan & F. Reed Johnson & William H. Desvousges, 2001. "Do Smokers Respond To Health Shocks?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 675-687, November.
    5. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    6. Michael D. Hurd & Kathleen McGarry, 2002. "The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(482), pages 966-985, October.
    7. Viscusi, W Kip & O'Connor, Charles J, 1984. "Adaptive Responses to Chemical Labeling: Are Workers Bayesian Decision Makers?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 942-956, December.
    8. Daniel S. Hamermesh, 1985. "Expectations, Life Expectancy, and Economic Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(2), pages 389-408.
    9. Conway, Delores A & Roberts, Harry V, 1983. "Reverse Regression, Fairness, and Employment Discrimination," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(1), pages 75-85, January.
    10. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nils Grevenbrock & Max Groneck & Alexander Ludwig & Alexander Zimper, 2021. "Cognition, Optimism, And The Formation Of Age‐Dependent Survival Beliefs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 887-918, May.
    2. Jin-Tan Liu & Meng-Wen Tsou & James K. Hammitt, 2007. "Health Information and Subjective Survival Probability: Evidence from Taiwan," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 149-175, March.
    3. Teresa Bago d'Uva & Esen Erdogan Ciftci & Owen O'Donnell & Eddy van Doorslaer, 2015. "Who can predict their Own Demise? Accuracy of Longevity Expectations by Education and Cognition," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-052/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. A. Ludwig & A. Zimper, 2013. "A parsimonious model of subjective life expectancy," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 75(4), pages 519-541, October.
    5. Alberto Palloni & Beatriz Novak, 2016. "Subjective survival expectations and observed survival: How consistent are they?," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 14(1), pages 187-228.
    6. Beshears, John & Choi, James J. & Laibson, David & Madrian, Brigitte C. & Zeldes, Stephen P., 2014. "What makes annuitization more appealing?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 2-16.
    7. Beni­tez-Silva, Hugo & Ni, Huan, 2008. "Health status and health dynamics in an empirical model of expected longevity," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 564-584, May.
    8. Yoram Halevy, 2004. "Diminishing Impatience: Disentangling Time Preference from Uncertain Lifetime," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000185, UCLA Department of Economics.
    9. Stephen P. Jenkins & Lorenzo Cappellari & Peter Lynn & Annette Jäckle & Emanuela Sala, 2006. "Patterns of consent: evidence from a general household survey," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 169(4), pages 701-722, October.
    10. Grevenbrock, Nils & Groneck, Max & Ludwig, Alexander & Zimper, Alexander, 2015. "Biased Survival Beliefs, Psychological and Cognitive Explanations, and the Demand for Life Insurances," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113203, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Yang, Qianqian & Ye, Zihan & Chen, Rongda, 2024. "Working longer or working harder? Subjective survival expectations and labor supply in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 827-847.
    12. Michael D. Hurd & James P. Smith & Julie M. Zissimopoulos, 2004. "The effects of subjective survival on retirement and Social Security claiming," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 761-775.
    13. Joan Costa-Font & Montserrat Costa-Font, 2011. "Explaining Optimistic Old Age Disability and Longevity Expectations," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 533-544, December.
    14. Maksym Obrizan, 2011. "A Bayesian Model of Sample Selection with a Discrete Outcome Variable: Detecting Depression in Older Adults," Discussion Papers 41, Kyiv School of Economics.
    15. Heidler, Matthias & Raffelhüschen, Bernd & Leifels, Arne, 2006. "Heterogenous life expectancy, adverse selection, and retirement behaviour," FZG Discussion Papers 13, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    16. Maria G. Perozek, 2005. "Using subjective expectations to forecast longevity: do survey respondents know something we don't know?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-68, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Sarah Bridges & David Lawson, 2008. "Health and Labour Market Participation in Uganda," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2008-07, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Fossen, Frank M. & König, Johannes, 2015. "Public health insurance and entry into self-employment," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112934, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Fernando Rios-Avila & Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza, 2018. "Standard-error correction in two-stage optimization models: A quasi–maximum likelihood estimation approach," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 18(1), pages 206-222, March.
    20. Ayouz, Mourad K. & Remaud, Herve, 2003. "The Internationalization Determinants Of The Small Agro-Food Firms: Hypotheses And Statistical Tests," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 5(2), pages 1-27.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. Longevity Expectations and Death: Can People Predict Their Own Demise? (AER 2001) in ReplicationWiki

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:91:y:2001:i:4:p:1126-1134. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.