Health Information and Subjective Survival Probability: Evidence from Taiwan
The effect of new health information on individuals' expectations about their longevity is examined using a Bayesian learning model. Using two-period panel-structured survey data from Taiwan, we find that subjective probabilities of living to age 75 and 85 are significantly smaller for respondents with more abnormal medical test outcomes and for those receiving more extensive advice on health behavior from their physicians. The subjective probability of survival declines with health shocks such as developing heart disease. Using pooled cross-sectional data, we find that males and married persons are more optimistic about their longevity expectations than females and single persons, and that income is strongly correlated with the subjective probability of living to age 75. Consistent with previous studies, the longevity of the same-sex parent is strongly associated with an individual's own expectation of living to age 75.
Volume (Year): 10 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RJRR20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RJRR20|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tomas Philipson, 2001. "The world-wide growth in obesity: an economic research agenda," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 1-7.
- Smith, V Kerry & Johnson, F Reed, 1988. "How Do Risk Perceptions Respond to Information? The Case of Radon," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(1), pages 1-8, February.
- repec:uwp:jhriss:v:30:y:1995:p:s268-s292 is not listed on IDEAS
- V. Kerry Smith & William H. Desvousges, 1988. "Risk Perception, Learning, and Individual Behavior," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1113-1117.
- Viscusi, W Kip & O'Connor, Charles J, 1984. "Adaptive Responses to Chemical Labeling: Are Workers Bayesian Decision Makers?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 942-956, December.
- Gibbons, F. X., 1999. "Social comparison as a mediator of response shift," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 48(11), pages 1517-1530, June.
- Smith, V. Kerry & Taylor, Donald H., Jr. & Sloan, Frank A., 2000.
"Longevity Expectations and Death: Can People Predict Their Own Demise?,"
00-15, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- V. Kerry Smith & Donald H. Taylor & Frank A. Sloan, 2001. "Longevity Expectations and Death: Can People Predict Their Own Demise?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1126-1134, September.
- V. Kerry Smith & Donald H. Taylor & Frank A. Sloan & F. Reed Johnson & William H. Desvousges, 2001.
"Do Smokers Respond To Health Shocks?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 675-687, November.
- Viscusi, W. Kip, 1985. "A Bayesian perspective on biases in risk perception," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 59-62.
- Michael D. Hurd & Daniel McFadden & Angela Merrill, 2001.
"Predictors of Mortality among the Elderly,"
in: Themes in the Economics of Aging, pages 171-198
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael D. Hurd & Kathleen McGarry, 1997.
"The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival,"
NBER Working Papers
6193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael D. Hurd & Kathleen McGarry, 2002. "The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(482), pages 966-985, October.
- Daniel S. Hamermesh, 1982. "Expectations, Life Expectancy, and Economic Behavior," NBER Working Papers 0835, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mallinson, Sara, 2002. "Listening to respondents: : a qualitative assessment of the Short-Form 36 Health Status Questionnaire," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 11-21, January.
- Daniel S. Hamermesh, 1985. "Expectations, Life Expectancy, and Economic Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(2), pages 389-408.
- Christine Himes, 2000. "Obesity, disease, and functional limitation in later life," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 37(1), pages 73-82, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:jriskr:v:10:y:2007:i:2:p:149-175. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.