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Cognition, Optimism, And The Formation Of Age‐Dependent Survival Beliefs

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  • Nils Grevenbrock
  • Max Groneck
  • Alexander Ludwig
  • Alexander Zimper

Abstract

This article investigates the roles of psychological biases for deviations between subjective survival beliefs (SSBs) and objective survival probabilities. We model these deviations through age‐dependent inverse S‐shaped probability weighting functions. Our estimates suggest that implied measures for cognitive weakness increase and relative optimism decrease with age. Direct measures of cognitive weakness and optimism share these trends. Our regression analyses confirm that these factors play strong quantitative roles in the formation of SSBs. Our main finding is that cognitive weakness instead of optimism becomes with age an increasingly important contributor to the well‐documented overestimation of survival chances in old age.

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  • Nils Grevenbrock & Max Groneck & Alexander Ludwig & Alexander Zimper, 2021. "Cognition, Optimism, And The Formation Of Age‐Dependent Survival Beliefs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 887-918, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:iecrev:v:62:y:2021:i:2:p:887-918
    DOI: 10.1111/iere.12497
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    4. Richard Foltyn & Jonna Olsson, 2024. "Subjective life expectancies, time preference heterogeneity, and wealth inequality," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(3), pages 699-736, July.
    5. Grevenbrock, Nils, 2020. "Dispositional optimism (and pessimism), wealth, and stock market participation," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    6. Nils Grevenbrock & Max Groneck & Alexander Ludwig & Alexander Zimper, 2021. "Cognition, Optimism, And The Formation Of Age‐Dependent Survival Beliefs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 887-918, May.
    7. Adriaan Kalwij & Vesile Kutlu Koc, 2021. "Is the accuracy of individuals' survival beliefs associated with their knowledge of population life expectancy?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(14), pages 453-468.
    8. Yu Gao & Zhenxing Huang & Ning Liu & Jia Yang, 2024. "Are physicians rational under ambiguity?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 183-203, April.
    9. Sunde, Uwe, 2023. "Age, longevity, and preferences," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General

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