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Are physicians rational under ambiguity?

Author

Listed:
  • Yu Gao

    (Peking University)

  • Zhenxing Huang

    (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)

  • Ning Liu

    (Beihang University
    Beihang University)

  • Jia Yang

    (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)

Abstract

Do physicians behave rationally when facing a new disease? This study assesses physicians’ ambiguity attitudes towards the future severity of the COVID-19 pandemic in its early stages and the financial market in the US using an incentive-compatible online experiment. Our findings indicate that physicians demonstrate significant deviations from expected utility, characterized by a modest degree of ambiguity aversion and pronounced levels of likelihood insensitivity. While physicians generally show less insensitivity to uncertainty compared to the general public, both groups exhibited similar levels of irrationality when dealing with the ambiguity surrounding the COVID-19 severity. These results underscore the necessity for debiasing strategies among medical professionals, especially in managing real-world uncertainties, with a specific focus on mitigating likelihood insensitivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu Gao & Zhenxing Huang & Ning Liu & Jia Yang, 2024. "Are physicians rational under ambiguity?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 183-203, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:68:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s11166-023-09425-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11166-023-09425-z
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ambiguity attitudes; Expert decision-making; Rationality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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