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Probability Weighting and Cognitive Ability

Author

Listed:
  • Syngjoo Choi
  • Jeongbin Kim
  • Eungik Lee
  • Jungmin Lee

Abstract

Probability weighting is a major concept for accommodating systemic departures from expected utility theory. We examine the relation between probability weighting and cognitive ability by conducting laboratory experiments with a pool of subjects with unusually large variation in cognitive ability; native-born South Koreans and North Korean refugees. We find that cognitive ability is related to two distinct features of probability weighting-likelihood insensitivity and optimism. Particularly, the negative association between likelihood insensitivity and cognitive ability is robust to potential confounders and stronger among lower cognitive-ability subjects. Our findings shed light on the sources of anomalous choices against expected utility theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Syngjoo Choi & Jeongbin Kim & Eungik Lee & Jungmin Lee, 2018. "Probability Weighting and Cognitive Ability," Working Paper Series no121, Institute of Economic Research, Seoul National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:snu:ioerwp:no121
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    Cited by:

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    2. Yu Gao & Zhenxing Huang & Ning Liu & Jia Yang, 2024. "Are physicians rational under ambiguity?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 183-203, April.
    3. Choi, Syngjoo & Hahn, Kyu Sup & Kim, Byung-Yeon & Lee, Eungik & Lee, Jungmin & Lee, Sokbae, 2024. "North Korean refugees’ implicit bias against South Korea predicts market earnings," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    4. Andrew Caplin & David J. Deming & Søren Leth-Petersen & Ben Weidmann, 2023. "Economic Decision-Making Skill Predicts Income in Two Countries," NBER Working Papers 31674, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Adam Dominiak & Peter Duersch, 2024. "Choice under uncertainty and cognitive load," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 133-161, April.
    6. Masahide Watanabe & Toshio Fujimi, 2024. "Ambiguity attitudes toward natural and artificial sources in gain and loss domains," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 68(1), pages 51-75, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    probability weighting; cognitive ability; likelihood insensitivity; North Korean refugees;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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