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Probabilities in Economic Modelling

  • Itzhak Gilboa
  • Andrew Postlewaite
  • David Schmeidler

Economic modeling assumes, for the most part, that agents are Bayesian, that is, that they entertain probabilistic beliefs, objective or subjective, regarding any event in question. We argue that the formation of such beliefs calls for a deeper examination and for explicit modeling. Models of belief formation may enhance our understanding of the probabilistic beliefs when these exist, and may also help up characterize situations in which entertaining such beliefs is neither realistic nor necessarily rational.

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Paper provided by David K. Levine in its series Levine's Working Paper Archive with number 122247000000001976.

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Date of creation: 05 Mar 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cla:levarc:122247000000001976
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.dklevine.com/

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  1. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2001. "Acknowledging Misspecification in Macroeconomic Theory," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(3), pages 519-535, July.
  2. Itzhak Gilboa & Offer Lieberman & David Schmeidler, 2004. "Empirical Similarity," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000684, UCLA Department of Economics.
  3. Antoine Billot & Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler & Dov Samet, 2004. "Probabilities as Similarity-Weighted Frequencies," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1492, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. Sujoy Mukerji & Peter Klibanoff, 2002. "A Smooth Model of Decision,Making Under Ambiguity," Economics Series Working Papers 113, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  5. Karni, Edi, 1993. "A Definition of Subjective Probabilities with State-Dependent Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 187-98, January.
  6. Itzhak Gilboa & Andrew Postlewaite & David Schmeidler, 2004. "Rationality of Belief," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000690, UCLA Department of Economics.
  7. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent & Thomas D. Tallarini Jr., 1997. "Robust Permanent Income and Pricing," Levine's Working Paper Archive 596, David K. Levine.
  8. Nishimura, Kiyohiko G. & Ozaki, Hiroyuki, 2004. "Search and Knightian uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 299-333, December.
  9. Dow, James & Werlang, Sergio Ribeiro da Costa, 1992. "Uncertainty Aversion, Risk Aversion, and the Optimal Choice of Portfolio," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 197-204, January.
  10. Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Aldo Rustichini, 2006. "Ambiguity Aversion, Robustness, and the Variational Representation of Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1447-1498, November.
  11. Karni, Edi & Schmeidler, David & Vind, Karl, 1983. "On State Dependent Preferences and Subjective Probabilities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1021-31, July.
  12. Karni, Edi & Postlewaite, Andrew, 2005. "David Schmeidler," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-2, January.
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