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Does Consistency Predict Accuracy of Beliefs?: Economists Surveyed About PSA

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  • Nathan Berg

    (Department of Economics, University of Otago, New Zealand)

  • G. Biele
  • Gerd Gigerenzer

Abstract

When economists' subjective beliefs about the sensitivity and positive predictive value of the Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) test are internally consistent (i.e., satisfying Bayes' Rule), their beliefs about prostate cancer risk are less accurate than among those with inconsistent beliefs. Using a loss function framework, we investigate but cannot find evidence that inconsistent beliefs lead to inaccuracy, different PSA decisions, or economic losses. Economists' PSA decisions appear to depend much more on the advice of doctors and family members than on beliefs about cancer risks and the pros/cons of PSA testing, which have little to no joint explanatory power.

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  • Nathan Berg & G. Biele & Gerd Gigerenzer, 2013. "Does Consistency Predict Accuracy of Beliefs?: Economists Surveyed About PSA," Working Papers 1308, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1308
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    Cited by:

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    3. Ada C. Stefanescu Schmidt & Ami B. Bhatt & Cass R. Sunstein, 2017. "Boundedly rational patients? Part 1: Health and patient mistakes in a behavioral framework," Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics (SABE), vol. 1(2), pages 11-15, September.

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