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Probabilities as Similarity-Weighted Frequencies

Author

Listed:
  • Itzhak Gilboa

    (TAU - Tel Aviv University)

  • Antoine Billot

    (PJSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LEM - Laboratoire d'Économie Moderne - UP2 - Université Panthéon-Assas)

  • Dov Samet
  • David Schmeidler

Abstract

A decision maker is asked to express her beliefs by assigning probabilities to certain possible states. We focus on the relationship between her database and her beliefs. We show that, if beliefs given a union of two databases are a convex combination of beliefs given each of the databases, the belief formation process follows a simple formula: beliefs are a similarity-weighted average of the beliefs induced by each past case.

Suggested Citation

  • Itzhak Gilboa & Antoine Billot & Dov Samet & David Schmeidler, 2005. "Probabilities as Similarity-Weighted Frequencies," Post-Print hal-00481235, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00481235
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0262.2005.00611.x
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    JEL classification:

    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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