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Probabilities as Similarity-Weighted Frequencies

Author

Listed:
  • Antoine Billot

    (Universite de Paris II)

  • Itzhak Gilboa

    (School of Economics, Tel Aviv University)

  • David Schmeidler

    (School of Mathematical Sciences, Tel Aviv Univ.)

  • Dov Samet

    (Tel Aviv University)

Abstract

A decision maker is asked to express her beliefs by assigning probabilities to certain possible states. We focus on the relationship between her database and her beliefs. We show that, if beliefs given a union of two databases are a convex combination of beliefs given each of the databases, the belief formation process follows a simple formula: beliefs are a similarity-weighted average of the beliefs induced by each past case.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Billot & Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler & Dov Samet, 2004. "Probabilities as Similarity-Weighted Frequencies," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1492, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1492
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    File URL: http://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d14/d1492.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 2003. "Inductive Inference: An Axiomatic Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 1-26, January.
    2. Billot, Antoine & Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 2008. "Axiomatization of an exponential similarity function," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 107-115, March.
    3. Itzhak Gilboa & Offer Lieberman & David Schmeidler, 2006. "Empirical Similarity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 433-444, August.
    4. F J Anscombe & R J Aumann, 2000. "A Definition of Subjective Probability," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7591, David K. Levine.
    5. Antoine Billot & Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 2004. "An Axiomatization of an Exponential Similarity Function," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000678, UCLA Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Similarity; Probability;

    JEL classification:

    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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