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Inductive Inference: An Axiomatic Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Gilboa, I.
  • Schmeidler, D.

Abstract

A predictor is asked to rank eventualities according to their plausibility, based on past cases. We assume that she can form a ranking given any memory that consists of finitely many past cases. Mild consistency requirements on these rankings imply that they have a numerical representation via a matrix assigning numbers to eventuality-case pairs, as follows. Given a memory, each eventuality is ranked according to the sum of the numbers in its row, over cases in memory. The number attached to an eventuality-case pair can be interpreted as the degree of support that the past lends to the plausibility of the eventuality.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilboa, I. & Schmeidler, D., 2001. "Inductive Inference: An Axiomatic Approach," Papers 2001-19, Tel Aviv.
    • Handle: RePEc:fth:teavfo:2001-19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    INFERENCE ; EVALUATION ; EXPECTATIONS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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