Inductive Inference: An Axiomatic Approach
A predictor is asked to rank eventualities according to their plausibility, based on past cases. We assume that she can form a ranking given any memory that consists of finitely many past cases. Mild consistency requirements on these rankings imply that they have a numerical representation via a matrix assigning numbers to eventuality--case pairs, as follows. Given a memory, each eventuality is ranked according to the sum of the numbers in its row, over cases in memory. The number attached to an eventuality--case pair can be interpreted as the degree of support that the past case lends to the plausibility of the eventuality. Special instances of this result may be viewed as axiomatizing kernel methods for estimation of densities and for classification problems. Interpreting the same result for rankings of theories or hypotheses, rather than of specific eventualities, it is shown that one may ascribe to the predictor subjective conditional probabilities of cases given theories, such that her rankings of theories agree with rankings by the likelihood functions. Copyright The Econometric Society 2003.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 71 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
|Contact details of provider:|| Phone: 1 212 998 3820|
Fax: 1 212 995 4487
Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: https://www.econometricsociety.org/publications/econometrica/access/ordering-back-issues Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Antonio Bernardo & Eric L. Talley & Ivo Welch, 1999.
"A Theory of Legal Presumptions,"
Yale School of Management Working Papers
ysm118, Yale School of Management.
- Mitchell A. Petersen & Raghuram G. Rajan, .
"Trade Credit: Theories and Evidence,"
CRSP working papers
322, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Ariel Rubinstein, 2010.
"Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
252, David K. Levine.
- Erik BERGLÖF & Gérard ROLAND & Ernst-Ludwig VON THADDEN, 2000. "An Incomplete Contracts Approach to Corporate Bankruptcy," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 00.12, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP, revised Apr 2002.
- Gertner, Robert & Scharfstein, David, 1991.
" A Theory of Workouts and the Effects of Reorganization Law,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1189-1222, September.
- Robert Gertner & David Scharfstein, 1991. "A Theory of Workouts and the Effects of Reorganization Law," NBER Technical Working Papers 0103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Biais, Bruno & Gollier, Christian, 1997. "Trade Credit and Credit Rationing," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 903-37.
- Hotchkiss, Edith S. & Mooradian, Robert M., 1997. "Vulture investors and the market for control of distressed firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 401-432, March.
- Jean Helwege, 1999. "How Long Do Junk Bonds Spend in Default?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 341-357, 02.
- Welch, Ivo, 1997. "Why Is Bank Debt Senior? A Theory of Asymmetry and Claim Priority Based on Influence Costs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 1203-36.
- Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998.
"Power in a Theory of the Firm,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1777, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, . "Power in a Theory of the Firm," CRSP working papers 335, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 1997. "Power in a Theory of the Firm," NBER Working Papers 6274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rajan, Raghuram G, 1992. " Insiders and Outsiders: The Choice between Informed and Arm's-Length Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1367-400, September.
- Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 1998.
"Monitoring, Liquidation, and Security Design,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 163-87.
- Gregor Andrade & Steven N. Kaplan, 1997.
"How Costly is Financial (not Economic) Distress? Evidence from Highly Leveraged Transactions that Became Distressed,"
NBER Working Papers
6145, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gregor Andrade & Steven N. Kaplan, 1998. "How Costly is Financial (Not Economic) Distress? Evidence from Highly Leveraged Transactions that Became Distressed," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1443-1493, October.
- Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983.
"Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
- Bolton, Patrick & Scharfstein, David S, 1996. "Optimal Debt Structure and the Number of Creditors," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(1), pages 1-25, February.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Andrei Shleifer, 2001.
"The Rise of the Regulatory State,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1934, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Brunner, Antje & Krahnen, Jan Pieter, 2001. "Corporate Debt Restructuring: Evidence on Lending Coordination in Financial Distress," CEPR Discussion Papers 3030, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998.
"Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-97, June.
- Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1997. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-fulfilling Currency Attacks," CEPR Discussion Papers 1687, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Morris, S & Song Shin, H, 1996. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," Economics Papers 126, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Schwartz, Alan & Watson, Joel, 2000.
"Economic and Legal Aspects of Costly Recontracting,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
qt4jr3g3h7, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Alan Schwartz & Joel Watson, 2000. "Economic and Legal Aspects of Costly Recontracting," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm143, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jan 2001.
- Preece, Dianna & Mullineaux, Donald J., 1996. "Monitoring, loan renegotiability, and firm value: The role of lending syndicates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 577-593, April.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996.
"Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features," NBER Working Papers 5285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," CEPR Discussion Papers 1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hirshleifer, J, 1978. "Competition, Cooperation, and Conflict in Economics and Biology," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 238-43, May.
- Cooter, Robert D & Rubinfeld, Daniel L, 1989. "Economic Analysis of Legal Disputes and Their Resolution," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 1067-97, September.
- Sanford J. Grossman & Oliver D. Hart, 1980. "Takeover Bids, the Free-Rider Problem, and the Theory of the Corporation," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 11(1), pages 42-64, Spring.
- Luigi Zingales, 1995. "Insider Ownership and the Decision to Go Public," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(3), pages 425-448.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:71:y:2003:i:1:p:1-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.