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An experimental study of estimation and bidding in common-value auctions with public information

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  • Charness, Gary
  • Levin, Dan
  • Schmeidler, David

Abstract

We study how subjects with identical public data first make estimates and then bid in common-value environments. The data presented rows of numbers and values associated with them by our (undisclosed) rule. Subjects were asked to estimate the missing value in the last row with only the numbers given, and then bid for that value in a second-price auction. There is no presumption of commonly-known distributions, yet we derive necessary conditions for equilibrium. The strong winner's curse that we observe in our data results from the dispersion of the value estimates and the poorly-chosen bid-strategies. We find that bidding is lower when bidders are more uncertain about the estimates they have made. Finally, the k-nearest-neighbor method does well in explaining the estimates of the (common) value.

Suggested Citation

  • Charness, Gary & Levin, Dan & Schmeidler, David, 2019. "An experimental study of estimation and bidding in common-value auctions with public information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 73-98.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:179:y:2019:i:c:p:73-98
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2018.10.009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 2003. "Inductive Inference: An Axiomatic Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 1-26, January.
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    3. Itzhak Gilboa & Offer Lieberman & David Schmeidler, 2012. "Empirical Similarity," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Case-Based Predictions An Axiomatic Approach to Prediction, Classification and Statistical Learning, chapter 9, pages 211-243, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Gary Charness & Dan Levin, 2009. "The Origin of the Winner's Curse: A Laboratory Study," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 207-236, February.
    5. Vincent P. Crawford & Nagore Iriberri, 2007. "Level-k Auctions: Can a Nonequilibrium Model of Strategic Thinking Explain the Winner's Curse and Overbidding in Private-Value Auctions?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1721-1770, November.
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    9. Max H. Bazerman & William F. Samuelson, 1983. "I Won the Auction But Don't Want the Prize," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 27(4), pages 618-634, December.
    10. Koch, Christian & Penczynski, Stefan P., 2018. "The winner's curse: Conditional reasoning and belief formation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 57-102.
    11. Kagel, John H & Levin, Dan & Harstad, Ronald M, 1995. "Comparative Static Effects of Number of Bidders and Public Information on Behavior in Second-Price Common Value Auctions," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 24(3), pages 293-319.
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    2. Olivier Bochet & Jacopo Magnani, 2021. "Limited Strategic Thinking and the Cursed Match," Working Papers 20210071, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Sep 2021.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Winner's curse; Similarity; Complexity; Experiment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B49 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Other
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General

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