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Malédiction du vainqueur et rationalité économique

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  • Michel Mougeot
  • Florence Naegelen

Abstract

[fre] Malédiction du vainqueur et rationalité économique. . Cet article examine le phénomène de la malédiction du vainqueur dans les procédures d'appel d'offres. Un modèle de simulation permet de distinguer la malédiction (due à une erreur d'évaluation a priori de la valeur du bien mis en vente) et le regret ex-post (dû à une comparaison entre la valeur ex-post et la valeur a priori). On montre qu'une stratégie optimale permet d'éviter la malédiction sans éliminer la possibilité d'un regret. [eng] Economc rationality and the winner's curse . . In this paper, we study the phenomenon known as the « winner's curse » in common value auction models. A simulation model allows to distinguish between the winner's curse (consequence of an a priori error on the expected value of the item) and the post decision surprise (when the a posteriori profit is compared with the a priori profit). We show that an optimal strategy can avoid the winner's curse but not all possibilities of regret.

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  • Michel Mougeot & Florence Naegelen, 1991. "Malédiction du vainqueur et rationalité économique," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 42(1), pages 29-50.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1991_num_42_1_409263
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