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Some Evidence of the Winner's Curse


  • Thiel, Stuart E


The mathematical complexity of auction theory has restricted empirical work to qualitative tests of its basic predictions, with mixed results. This paper exploits the theory of order statistics to derive a Nash bid function that is linear in its parameters , allowing direct estimati on by linear least squares. The bid function is fitted to a cross section of auctions for highway construction contracts from thirty-three states, and provides support for several hypotheses of the theory of common-value auctions. Copyright 1988 by American Economic Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Thiel, Stuart E, 1988. "Some Evidence of the Winner's Curse," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 884-895, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:78:y:1988:i:5:p:884-95

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Rubinstein, Ariel, 1982. "Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 97-109, January.
    2. Grossman, Sanford J & Hart, Oliver D, 1986. "The Costs and Benefits of Ownership: A Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(4), pages 691-719, August.
    3. Bloom, David E, 1986. "Empirical Models of Arbitrator Behavior under Conventional Arbitration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(4), pages 578-585, November.
    4. Vincent P. Crawford, 1982. "Compulsory Arbitration, Arbitral Risk and Negotiated Settlements: A Case Study in Bargaining under Imperfect Information," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(1), pages 69-82.
    5. Nash, John, 1950. "The Bargaining Problem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 18(2), pages 155-162, April.
    6. Ehud Kalai & Robert W. Rosenthal, 1976. "Arbitration of Two-Party Disputes Under Ignorance," Discussion Papers 215, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
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    Cited by:

    1. Leonardo Rezende, 2008. "Econometrics of auctions by least squares," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(7), pages 925-948.
    2. Susan Athey & Philip A. Haile, 2006. "Empirical Models of Auctions," NBER Working Papers 12126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Yusuke Matsuki, "undated". "A Distribution-Free Test of Monotonicity with an Application to Auctions," Working Papers e110, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    4. Vukina, Tomislav & Zheng, Xiaoyong & Marra, Michele & Levy, Armando, 2008. "Do farmers value the environment? Evidence from a conservation reserve program auction," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1323-1332, November.
    5. Jean-Jacques Laffont, 1998. "Théorie des jeux et économie empirique : le cas des données issues d'enchères," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 132(1), pages 121-137.
    6. Cramton, Peter C, 1995. "Money Out of Thin Air: The Nationwide Narrowband PCS Auction," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 267-343, Summer.
    7. Nombela, Gustavo & de Rus, Gines, 2001. "Auctions for Infrastructure Concessions with Demand Uncertainty and Unknown Costs," MPRA Paper 12023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. James V. Koch & Richard J. Cebula, 2002. "Price, Quality, And Service On The Internet: Sense And Nonsense," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(1), pages 25-37, January.
    9. Sexton, Richard J., 1993. "Noncooperative Game Theory: A Review with Potential Applications to Agricultural Markets," Research Reports 25183, University of Connecticut, Food Marketing Policy Center.
    10. Christopher J. Mayer, 1993. "A model of real estate auctions versus negotiated sales," Working Papers 93-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    11. Boone, Audra L. & Harold Mulherin, J., 2008. "Do auctions induce a winner's curse? New evidence from the corporate takeover market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 1-19, July.
    12. Chang N. Xuan & Daniel C. Quan, 2002. "Pricing Limited Partnerships in the Secondary Market," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 23(3), pages 215-234.
    13. Michel Mougeot & Florence Naegelen, 1991. "Malédiction du vainqueur et rationalité économique," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 42(1), pages 29-50.
    14. Laffont, Jean-Jacques, 1997. "Game theory and empirical economics: The case of auction data 1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 1-35, January.
    15. Xiaolong Liu & Weidong Qu, 2015. "Winner's Curse or Signaling? Bidding Outcomes in the Chinese Land Market," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 113-129.

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