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Elicitation of Subjective Probabilities When Preferences Are State-Dependent

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  • Karni, Edi

Abstract

This paper presents an experimental design that enables the elicitation of subjective probabilities of decision makers whose preferences satisfy the axioms of expected utility theory and are state-dependent. Copyright 1999 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Karni, Edi, 1999. "Elicitation of Subjective Probabilities When Preferences Are State-Dependent," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(2), pages 479-486, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:40:y:1999:i:2:p:479-86
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dubin, Robin A, 1988. "Estimation of Regression Coefficients in the Presence of Spatially Autocorrelated Error Terms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(3), pages 466-474, August.
    2. Mandy, David M & Martins-Filho, Carlos, 1994. "A Unified Approach to Asymptotic Equivalence of Aitken and Feasible Aitken Instrumental Variables Estimators," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(4), pages 957-979, November.
    3. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 445-502.
    4. Heijmans, Risto D. H. & Magnus, Jan R., 1986. "Consistent maximum-likelihood estimation with dependent observations : The general (non-normal) case and the normal case," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 253-285, July.
    5. Potscher, Benedikt M. & Prucha, Ingmar R., 1986. "A class of partially adaptive one-step m-estimators for the non-linear regression model with dependent observations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 219-251, July.
    6. Benedikt M. Pötscher & Ingmar R. Prucha, 1999. "Basic Elements of Asymptotic Theory," Electronic Working Papers 99-001, University of Maryland, Department of Economics.
    7. Anselin, Luc, 1990. "Some robust approaches to testing and estimation in spatial econometrics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 141-163, September.
    8. Case, Anne C, 1991. "Spatial Patterns in Household Demand," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 953-965, July.
    9. Potscher, Benedikt M & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1989. "A Uniform Law of Large Numbers for Dependent and Heterogeneous Data Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 675-683, May.
    10. Moulton, Brent R, 1990. "An Illustration of a Pitfall in Estimating the Effects of Aggregate Variables on Micro Unit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 334-338, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Steffen Andersen & John Fountain & Glenn Harrison & E. Rutström, 2014. "Estimating subjective probabilities," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 207-229, June.
    2. Karni, Edi, 2008. "Unknowable states and choice-based definitions of subjective probabilities," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 534-536, June.
    3. Jacquemet, Nicolas & Rullière, Jean-Louis & Vialle, Isabelle, 2008. "Monitoring optimistic agents," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 698-714, November.
    4. Karl Schlag & James Tremewan & Joël Weele, 2015. "A penny for your thoughts: a survey of methods for eliciting beliefs," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 18(3), pages 457-490, September.
    5. Armantier, Olivier & Treich, Nicolas, 2013. "Eliciting beliefs: Proper scoring rules, incentives, stakes and hedging," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 17-40.
    6. Mariana Blanco & Dirk Engelmann & Alexander Koch & Hans-Theo Normann, 2010. "Belief elicitation in experiments: is there a hedging problem?," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 13(4), pages 412-438, December.
    7. Robert G. Chambers & John Quiggin, 2005. "Comparative Risk Aversion for State-Dependent Preferences," Risk & Uncertainty Working Papers WP5R05, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland.
    8. Robert Chambers & Tigran Melkonyan, 2008. "Eliciting beliefs," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 271-284, December.

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