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Household Portfolio Underdiversification and Probability Weighting: Evidence from the Field

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen G. Dimmock
  • Roy Kouwenberg
  • Olivia S. Mitchell
  • Kim Peijnenburg

Abstract

We explore the relation between probability weighting and household portfolio underdiversification in a representative household survey, using custom-designed incentivized lotteries. On average, people display Inverse-S shaped probability weighting, overweighting the small probabilities of tail events. As theory predicts, our Inverse-S measure is positively associated with portfolio underdiversification, which results in significant Sharpe ratio losses. We match respondents’ individual stock holdings to CRSP data and find that people with higher Inverse-S tend to pick stocks with positive skewness and hold positively-skewed equity portfolios. We show that these choices reflect preferences rather than probability unsophistication or limited financial knowledge.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen G. Dimmock & Roy Kouwenberg & Olivia S. Mitchell & Kim Peijnenburg, 2018. "Household Portfolio Underdiversification and Probability Weighting: Evidence from the Field," NBER Working Papers 24928, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24928
    Note: AG PE
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    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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