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Household Portfolio Underdiversification and Probability Weighting: Evidence from the Field

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen G. Dimmock
  • Roy Kouwenberg
  • Olivia S. Mitchell
  • Kim Peijnenburg

Abstract

We explore the relation between probability weighting and household portfolio underdiversification in a representative household survey, using custom-designed incentivized lotteries. On average, people display Inverse-S shaped probability weighting, overweighting the small probabilities of tail events. As theory predicts, our Inverse-S measure is positively associated with portfolio underdiversification, which results in significant Sharpe ratio losses. We match respondents’ individual stock holdings to CRSP data and find that people with higher Inverse-S tend to pick stocks with positive skewness and hold positively-skewed equity portfolios. We show that these choices reflect preferences rather than probability unsophistication or limited financial knowledge.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen G. Dimmock & Roy Kouwenberg & Olivia S. Mitchell & Kim Peijnenburg, 2018. "Household Portfolio Underdiversification and Probability Weighting: Evidence from the Field," NBER Working Papers 24928, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24928
    Note: AG PE
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    Cited by:

    1. Kanin Anantanasuwong & Roy Kouwenberg & Olivia S. Mitchell & Kim Peijnenburg, 2024. "Ambiguity attitudes for real-world sources: field evidence from a large sample of investors," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 27(3), pages 548-581, July.
    2. Peijnenburg, Kim & Anantanasuwong, Kanin & Kouwenberg, Roy & Mitchell, Olivia S, 2019. "Ambiguity Attitudes about Investments: Evidence from the Field," CEPR Discussion Papers 13518, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    3. Xue Dong He & Moris S. Strub & Thaleia Zariphopoulou, 2019. "Forward Rank-Dependent Performance Criteria: Time-Consistent Investment Under Probability Distortion," Papers 1904.01745, arXiv.org.
    4. Lugo, Stefano & Montone, Maurizio, 2026. "Friend or foe? Bilateral political relations and the portfolio allocation of foreign institutional investors," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    5. Sun, Yuzhe & Zhang, Shunming, 2023. "Heterogeneity of probability weighting in investment decisions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    6. Dittmann, Ingolf & Montone, Maurizio & Zhu, Yuhao, 2023. "Wage gap and stock returns: Do investors dislike pay inequality?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Jianchun Sun & Lunyi Wang & Yanyi Wang & Shunming Zhang, 2026. "CAPM and Skewness Pricing Under Probability Weighting: Based on the Generalised Wang Transform," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 390-407, January.
    8. Daniel Gottlieb & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2020. "Narrow Framing and Long‐Term Care Insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 87(4), pages 861-893, December.
    9. Bertrand Candelon & Franz Fuerst & Jean-Baptiste Hasse Pages 126-139 Download PDF Data, Tools and Replication Section, 2021. "Diversification potential in real estate portfolios," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 166, pages 126-139.
    10. Wang, Lunyi & Wang, Yao & Zhang, Shunming, 2024. "Probability distortion and non-participation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    11. Xie, Yuxin & Tang, Ruohua & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Lu, Xiaomeng, 2024. "Narrow framing and under-diversification: Empirical evidence from Chinese households," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    12. Yu Gao & Zhenxing Huang & Ning Liu & Jia Yang, 2024. "Are physicians rational under ambiguity?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 183-203, April.
    13. Jun Yuan & Qi Xu & Ying Wang, 2023. "Probability weighting in commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 516-548, April.
    14. Chen, Rongxin & Lepori, Gabriele M. & Tai, Chung-Ching & Sung, Ming-Chien, 2022. "Can salience theory explain investor behaviour? Real-world evidence from the cryptocurrency market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    15. Cathleen Johnson & Aurélien Baillon & Han Bleichrodt & Zhihua Li & Dennie Dolder & Peter P. Wakker, 2021. "Prince: An improved method for measuring incentivized preferences," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 1-28, February.
    16. Liu, Yakun & Chen, Yan & Zhang, Lei & Deng, Xi, 2026. "Forecasting stock return: The role of idiosyncratic asymmetry risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    17. Barone, Simona & Oggero, Noemi & Damilano, Marina, 2026. "Financial literacy and international portfolio diversification," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    18. Richard Gonzalez & George Wu, 2022. "Composition rules in original and cumulative prospect theory," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 647-675, April.
    19. Jeongseop Song & Kim Hiang Liow, 2023. "Industrial tail exposure risk and asset price: Evidence from US REITs," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1209-1245, September.
    20. Thomas Epper & Helga Fehr-Duda, 2012. "The missing link: unifying risk taking and time discounting," ECON - Working Papers 096, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Oct 2018.
    21. Nicole Hentschel, 2025. "Risk Attitudes do not explain Cash Holdings," Working Papers 25.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    22. Montone, Maurizio, 2023. "Beta, value, and growth: Do dichotomous risk-preferences explain stock returns?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    23. Glenn W. Harrison & Morten I. Lau & Hong Il Yoo, 2025. "Constant Discounting, Temporal Instability, And Dynamic Inconsistency In Denmark: A Longitudinal Field Experiment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 66(1), pages 363-392, February.
    24. Li, Mingzhe, 2025. "A Theory of Portfolio Choice for Heterogeneous Investors," MPRA Paper 126642, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Oct 2025.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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