Individual Subjective Survival Curves
Testing life-cycle models and other economic models of saving and consumption at micro level requires knowledge of individuals' subjective believes of their mortality risk. Previous studies have shown that individual responses on subjective survival probabilities are generally consistent with life tables. However, survey responses suffer serious problems caused by focal responses of zero and one. This paper suggests using a Bayesian update model that accounts for the problems encountered in focal responses. We also propose models that help us to identify how much each individual deviates from life table in her subjective belief. The resulting individual subjective survival curves have considerable variations and are readily applicable in testing economic models that require individual subjective life expectancies.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Wise, David (ed.) Analyses in Economics of Aging. The University of Chicago Press, 2005.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
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- Glenn R. Hubbard & Jonathan Skinner & Stephen P. Zeldes, .
"Precautionary Saving and Social Insurance,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
03-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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- Manski, Charles F., 1993. "Dynamic choice in social settings : Learning from the experiences of others," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 121-136, July.
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