Individual Subjective Survival Curves
Testing life-cycle models and other economic models of saving and consumption at micro level requires knowledge of individuals' subjective believes of their mortality risk. Previous studies have shown that individual responses on subjective survival probabilities are generally consistent with life tables. However, survey responses suffer serious problems caused by focal responses of zero and one. This paper suggests using a Bayesian update model that accounts for the problems encountered in focal responses. We also propose models that help us to identify how much each individual deviates from life table in her subjective belief. The resulting individual subjective survival curves have considerable variations and are readily applicable in testing economic models that require individual subjective life expectancies.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2003|
|Publication status:||published as Wise, David (ed.) Analyses in Economics of Aging. The University of Chicago Press, 2005.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
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- Hubbard, R Glenn & Skinner, Jonathan & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1995.
"Precautionary Saving and Social Insurance,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(2), pages 360-399, April.
- Glenn R. Hubbard & Jonathan Skinner & Stephen P. Zeldes, "undated". "Precautionary Saving and Social Insurance," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 3-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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- Glenn R. Hubbard & Jonathan Skinner & Stephen P. Zeldes, "undated". "Precautionary Saving and Social Insurance," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 03-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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- Michael D. Hurd & Kathleen McGarry, 1993. "Evaluation of Subjective Probability Distributions in the HRS," NBER Working Papers 4560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hurd, Michael D, 1989. "Mortality Risk and Bequests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 779-813, July.
- Manski, Charles F., 1993. "Dynamic choice in social settings : Learning from the experiences of others," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 121-136, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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