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Survival Pessimism and the Demand for Annuities

Author

Listed:
  • Cormac O'Dea

    (Yale University, NBER and Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • David Sturrock

    (University College London and Institute for Fiscal Studies)

Abstract

The “annuity puzzle” refers to the fact that annuities are rarely purchased despite the longevity insurance they provide. Most explanations for this puzzle assume that individuals have accurate expectations about their future survival. We provide evidence that individuals misperceive their mortality risk and study the demand for annuities in a setting where annuities are priced by insurers on the basis of objectively-measured survival probabilities but in which individuals make purchasing decisions based on their own subjective survival probabilities. Subjective expectations have the capacity to explain significant rates of nonannuitization, yielding a quantitatively important explanation for the annuity puzzle.

Suggested Citation

  • Cormac O'Dea & David Sturrock, 2023. "Survival Pessimism and the Demand for Annuities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 442-457, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:105:y:2023:i:2:p:442-457
    DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01048
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    Cited by:

    1. Vandenberghe, Vincent, 2024. "Partial de-annuitization of public pensions vs. retirement age differentiation: Which is best to account for longevity differences?," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 111-131, January.
    2. Jeong, Seung Yeon & Owadally, Iqbal & Haberman, Steven & Wright, Douglas, 2025. "Subjective survival beliefs and the life-cycle model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 11-29.
    3. Pierre-Carl Michaud & Pascal St-Amour, 2023. "Longevity, Health and Housing Risks Management in Retirement," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 23-18, Swiss Finance Institute.
    4. Thorsten Moenig & Nan Zhu, 2025. "Adverse selection in tontines," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 50(1), pages 6-38, March.
    5. Rory McGee, 2023. "Adverse selection among early adopters and unraveling innovation," IFS Working Papers W23/40, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    6. Jenny Robinson & David A. Comerford, 2020. "The Effect on Annuities Preference of Prompts to Consider Life Expectancy: Evidence from a UK Quota Sample," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 87(347), pages 747-762, July.
    7. Roy McGee, 2023. "Adverse Selection Among Early Adopters and Unraveling Innovation," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 2022302, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
    8. Nurin Haniah Asmuni & Ken Seng Tan & Sachi Purcal, 2022. "The Impact of Health Impairment on Optimal Annuitization for Retirees," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-21, April.
    9. de Bresser, Jochem, 2021. "Evaluating the Accuracy of Counterfactuals The Role of Heterogeneous Expectations in Life Cycle Models," Discussion Paper 2021-034, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    10. Torben M. Andersen, 2024. "Hedging mortality risk over the life‐cycle—The role of information and borrowing constraints," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(4), pages 1449-1466, October.
    11. Giovanna Apicella & Enrico G. De Giorgi, 2024. "A behavioral gap in survival beliefs," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 91(1), pages 213-247, March.
    12. Erdenesuren, Lkhagvaa, 2023. "Expectation, anticipation, and identification : Essays on subjective expectations and economic decision-making," Other publications TiSEM b9653e21-b96f-4bbe-8862-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. Krawczyk, Michal, 2024. "Excessive discounting, longevity expectations, and retirement saving: An online survey," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    14. Vladimír Baláž, 2023. "Indulgence, Self-Control, and Annuity Preferences: Annuity Choices by Members of the Slovak-Funded Private Pension Pillar," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-17, March.
    15. Linden, Mikael & Väänänen, Niko, 2023. "Mean survival times and retirement ages," MPRA Paper 119344, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. David A. Comerford, 2021. "Apparent age and gender differences in survival optimism: To what extent are they a bias in the translation of beliefs onto a percentage scale?," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 16(4), pages 1072-1096, July.
    17. Torben M. Andersen & Cecilie Marie Løchte Jørgensen, 2024. "The Distributional Implications of Pension Benefit Indexation," CESifo Working Paper Series 10943, CESifo.
    18. Piotrowska, Maria, 2019. "The importance of personality characteristics and behavioral constraints for retirement saving," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 194-220.
    19. Joachim Ragnitz & Gundula Roßbach & Axel Börsch-Supan & Martin Hellwig & Eckhard Janeba & Martin Werding & Arthur Seibold & Markus Roth & Andreas Richter & Jörg Schiller & Michaela Engelmeier & Sebast, 2024. "Sackgasse Generationenvertrag: Wege aus der Krise der Altersversorgung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 77(12), pages 03-39, December.
    20. Adriaan Kalwij & Vesile Kutlu Koc, 2021. "Is the accuracy of individuals' survival beliefs associated with their knowledge of population life expectancy?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(14), pages 453-468.
    21. Hurwitz, Abigail & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Sade, Orly, 2022. "Testing methods to enhance longevity awareness," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 466-475.
    22. Chen, An & Hieber, Peter & Rach, Manuel, 2021. "Optimal retirement products under subjective mortality beliefs," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(PA), pages 55-69.
    23. Atta Mills, Ebenezer Fiifi Emire & Anyomi, Siegfried Kafui, 2023. "Optimal lifetime income annuity without bequest: Single and annual premiums," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    24. de Bresser, Jochem, 2021. "Evaluating the Accuracy of Counterfactuals The Role of Heterogeneous Expectations in Life Cycle Models," Other publications TiSEM a7e2b4d8-fed0-4e86-926f-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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