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Longevity risk, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior

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  • Post, Thomas
  • Hanewald, Katja

Abstract

We provide evidence of individuals’ awareness of longevity risk (the uncertainty about future survival probabilities) based on subjective survival expectations elicited in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) and matching data on longevity risk from the Human Mortality Database. We find a positive relationship between the forecast dispersion in subjective survival estimates and longevity risk which indicates that individuals are to some extent aware of longevity risk. Our analysis of savings behavior shows that the dispersion in survival estimates is primarily explained by individuals disagreeing on the survival probability and not by their true awareness of the underlying uncertainty. Individuals do not save more on average when faced with longevity risk although theory suggests they should.

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  • Post, Thomas & Hanewald, Katja, 2013. "Longevity risk, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 200-220.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:86:y:2013:i:c:p:200-220
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2012.11.012
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    6. Cormac O'Dea & David Sturrock, 2018. "Subjective expectations of survival and economic behaviour," IFS Working Papers W18/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    7. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Attanasi, Giuseppe & Thibault, Emmanuel, 2020. "An experimental test of the under-annuitization puzzle with smooth ambiguity and charitable giving," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 694-717.
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    10. Spijker, Jeroen, 2019. "Combining remaining life expectancy and time-to-death as a measure of old-age dependency related to health care needs," SocArXiv vuaed, Center for Open Science.
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    13. Joan Costa-Font & Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto, 2022. "Biased survival expectations and behaviours: Does domain specific information matter?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 285-317, December.
    14. Timothy Riffe & Pil H. Chung & Jeroen Spijker & John MacInnes, 2015. "Time-to-death patterns in markers of age and dependency," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2015-003, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    15. Federica Teppa & Susan Thorp & Hazel Bateman, 2015. "Family, friends and framing: A cross-country study of subjective survival expectations," DNB Working Papers 491, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    16. Reuben Ng & Heather G. Allore & Becca R. Levy, 2020. "Self-Acceptance and Interdependence Promote Longevity: Evidence From a 20-year Prospective Cohort Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-15, August.
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    19. Bu, Di & Hanspal, Tobin & Liao, Yin & Liu, Yong, 2021. "Risk taking, preferences, and beliefs: Evidence from Wuhan," SAFE Working Paper Series 301, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    20. Ye, Zihan & Post, Thomas, 2020. "What age do you feel? – Subjective age identity and economic behaviors," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 322-341.
    21. Francesco C. Billari & Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Saita, 2017. "Nudging financial and demographic literacy: experimental evidence from an Italian Trade Union Pension Fund," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1767, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    22. David R. Rappange & Job van Exel & Werner B. F. Brouwer, 2017. "A short note on measuring subjective life expectancy: survival probabilities versus point estimates," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 18(1), pages 7-12, January.
    23. Gregorio Gimenez & Ana Isabel Gil-Lacruz & Marta Gil-Lacruz, 2021. "Is Happiness Linked to Subjective Life Expectancy? A Study of Chilean Senior Citizens," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(17), pages 1-12, August.

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    16. Adeline Delavande & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2009. "Subjective expectations in the context of HIV/AIDS in Malawi," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(31), pages 817-875.
    17. Nils Grevenbrock & Max Groneck & Alexander Ludwig & Alexander Zimper, 2021. "Cognition, Optimism, And The Formation Of Age‐Dependent Survival Beliefs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 887-918, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Longevity risk; Subjective survival expectations; Forecast dispersion; Saving behavior;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

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