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Anticipated Money, Inflation Uncertainty, and Real Economic Activity

  • John H. Makin

This paper critically examines a number of maintained hypotheses that are necessarily being tested along with the basic notion derived from the rational expectations (RE) formulation of Lucas (1972) (19 73) that "only unanticipated money matters." The trend stationary representation of secular real output of Lucas and others is replaced by a difference stationary representation found by Nelson and Plosser (1980) to be consistent with U. S. historical data. The impact of inflation uncertainty on real activity is considered. Attention is paid to possible mis-measurement of agents' ex ante -- anticipated money growth. It is found that three alternative measures of anticipated money growth produce a stable impact on growth of output and employment. Contemporaneous and lagged values of unanticipated money growth have no significant additional explanatory power in the presence of any one of the three measures of anticipated money growth. Beyond this, it is impossible to reject the hypothesis that the initial positive real impact of anticipated money is not temporary. Inflation uncertainty is found to act as a significant depressant of real economic activity in the presence of all tested combinations of anticipated and unanticipated money growth.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0760.

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Date of creation: Sep 1981
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Publication status: published as Makin, John H. "Anticipated Money, Inflation Uncertainty, and Real Economic Activity." The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. LXIV, No. 1, (February 1982), pp. 126-134.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0760
Note: ME
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  1. Alan S. Blinder & Stanley Fischer, 1979. "Inventories, Rational Expectations, and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 0381, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. William Poole, 2001. "Expectations," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 1-10.
  3. Sargent, Thomas J. & Wallace, Neil, 1976. "Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 169-183, April.
  4. Cukierman, Alex & Wachtel, Paul, 1979. "Differential Inflationary Expectations and the Variability of the Rate of Inflation: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 595-609, September.
  5. Mullineaux, Donald J, 1980. "Unemployment, Industrial Production, and Inflation Uncertainty in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(2), pages 163-69, May.
  6. Haraf, William S., 1978. "Inventories, orders and the persistent effects of monetary shocks," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue 2, pages 63-86.
  7. Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "A Reexamination of Natural Rate Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 946-60, December.
  8. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "The Observational Equivalence of Natural and Unnatural Rate Theories of Macroeconomics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 631-40, June.
  9. Robert J. Barro & Mark Rush, 1980. "Unanticipated Money and Economic Activity," NBER Chapters, in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 23-73 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678.
  11. Robert J. Gordon, 1979. "New Evidence that Fully Anticipated Monetary Changes Influence Real Output After All," Discussion Papers 369, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  12. Michael R. Darby, 1980. "Unanticipated or Actual Changes in Aggregate Demand Variables: A Cross-Country Analysis," NBER Working Papers 0589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  14. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-15, March.
  15. Levi, Maurice D & Makin, John H, 1979. "Fisher, Phillips, Friedman and the Measured Impact of Inflation on Interest," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 35-52, March.
  16. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? An Econometric Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 22-51, February.
  17. McCallum, Bennett T, 1979. "On the Observational Inequivalence of Classical and Keynesian Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(2), pages 395-402, April.
  18. Sheffrin, Steven M, 1979. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Output Fluctuations," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 17(1), pages 1-13, January.
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