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Anticipated Money, Inflation Uncertainty, and Real Economic Activity

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  • John H. Makin

Abstract

This paper critically examines a number of maintained hypotheses that are necessarily being tested along with the basic notion derived from the rational expectations (RE) formulation of Lucas (1972) (19 73) that "only unanticipated money matters." The trend stationary representation of secular real output of Lucas and others is replaced by a difference stationary representation found by Nelson and Plosser (1980) to be consistent with U. S. historical data. The impact of inflation uncertainty on real activity is considered. Attention is paid to possible mis-measurement of agents' ex ante -- anticipated money growth. It is found that three alternative measures of anticipated money growth produce a stable impact on growth of output and employment. Contemporaneous and lagged values of unanticipated money growth have no significant additional explanatory power in the presence of any one of the three measures of anticipated money growth. Beyond this, it is impossible to reject the hypothesis that the initial positive real impact of anticipated money is not temporary. Inflation uncertainty is found to act as a significant depressant of real economic activity in the presence of all tested combinations of anticipated and unanticipated money growth.

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  • John H. Makin, 1981. "Anticipated Money, Inflation Uncertainty, and Real Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 0760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0760
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    Cited by:

    1. Froyen, Richard T & Waud, Roger N, 1988. "Real Business Cycles and the Lucas Paradigm," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(2), pages 183-201, April.
    2. Victor Zarnowitz & Louis A. Lambros, 1983. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," NBER Working Papers 1171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 411-471.
    4. Engelberg, Joseph & Manski, Charles F. & Williams, Jared, 2009. "Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27, pages 30-41.
    5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 209-270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Paul, Biru Paksha, 2009. "In search of the Phillips curve for India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 479-488, September.
    7. Gordon, Robert J, 1982. "Price Inertia and Policy Ineffectiveness in the United States, 1890-1980," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1087-1117, December.
    8. Victor Zarnowitz & Phillip Braun, 1989. "Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes: Some Estimates of Their Interrelations, 1886-1982," NBER Working Papers 2812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2003. "Inflation forecast uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1037-1059, December.
    10. Froyen, Richard T & Waud, Roger N, 1987. "An Examination of Aggregate Price Uncertainty in Four Countries and Some Implications for Real Output," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(2), pages 353-372, June.
    11. Post, Thomas & Hanewald, Katja, 2013. "Longevity risk, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 200-220.
    12. W D A Bryant, 2009. "General Equilibrium:Theory and Evidence," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 6875.
    13. Victor Zarnowitz, 1989. "Cost and Price Movements in Business Cycle Theories and Experience: Causes and Effects of OBserved Changes (SEE ALSO WP3131-Send out together)," NBER Working Papers 3132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. John H. Makin & Vito Tanzi, 1983. "The Level and Volatility of Interest Rates in the United States: The Roles of Expected Inflation, Real Rates, and Taxes," NBER Working Papers 1167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. G. S. Laumas, 1991. "Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Real Output," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 157-163, Apr-Jun.
    16. Bond, Gary E. & Thompson, Stanley R. & Geldard, Jane M., 1985. "Basis Risk And Hedging Strategies For Australian Wheat Exports," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 29(3), pages 1-11, December.
    17. Robert P. Flood & Robert J. Hodrick, 1985. "Optimal Price and Inventory Adjustment in an Open-Economy Model of the Business Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(Supplemen), pages 887-914.
    18. Thomas Post & Katja Hanewald, 2010. "Stochastic Mortality, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-040, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    19. Gonzalo Jesús & Taamouti Abderrahim, 2017. "The reaction of stock market returns to unemployment," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 1-20, September.
    20. Taamouti, Abderrahim & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2011. "The reaction of stock market returns to anticipated unemployment," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1145, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    21. Ran TAO & Zheng-Zheng LI & Xiao-Lin LI & Chi-Wei SU, 2018. "A Reexamination of Friedman-Ball’s Hypothesis in Slovakia - Evidence from Wavelet Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 41-54, December.
    22. E Andreou & A Pelloni & M Sensier, 2003. "The effect of nominal shock uncertainty on output growth," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 40, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    23. B. Balaji & S. Raja Sethu Durai & M. Ramachandran, 2016. "The Dynamics Between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence from India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, June.
    24. Ali F. Darrat, 1985. "Anticipated versus Unanticipated Monetary Policy and Real Output in West Germany," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 29(1), pages 73-77, March.
    25. Paul Oslington, 2012. "General Equilibrium: Theory and Evidence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(282), pages 446-448, September.

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