IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/0361.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

New Evidence That Fully Anticipated Monetary Changes Influence Real Output After All

Author

Listed:
  • Robert J. Gordon

Abstract

Robert Barro in his three papers on the topic(AER 1977, JPE 1978, and 1978 conference paper with Mark Rush). A distinction is drawn between the Lucas-Sargent-Wallace (LSW) theory that only unanticipated monetary changes influence real output, and the orthodox view that anticipated monetary changes influence real output in the short run during the interval of adjustment of prices to the monetary change. The LSW proposition requires for its validity a contemporaneous and equiproportionate response of the expected price level to the anticipated level of money or nominal CNP, whereas the orthodox approach requires that price expectations depend at least partly on the past history of prices rather than entirely on the expected level of nominal demand. The results uniformly support the orthodox approach. The Livingston expectations series exhibits a highly significant response to past price changes, and only a slight response to current expectations about nominal GNP or money. The actual inflation rate also depends heavily on past price changes, with an insignificant impact of current expectations of nominal GNP, or money. The equations that relate real output to the deviation of changes of nominal income (both anticipated and unanticipated) from past price changes fit the data significantly better than Barro's approach using current and lagged values of money "surprises." The pure version of the LSW approach relating real output only to current surprises is decisively rejected.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert J. Gordon, 1979. "New Evidence That Fully Anticipated Monetary Changes Influence Real Output After All," NBER Working Papers 0361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0361
    Note: EFG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0361.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-115, March.
    2. Blinder, Alan S. & Fischer, Stanley, 1981. "Inventories, rational expectations, and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 277-304.
    3. Hall, Robert E & Lilien, David M, 1979. "Efficient Wage Bargains under Uncertain Supply and Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(5), pages 868-879, December.
    4. R. G. Fry, 1978. "Comment," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 1(60), pages 14-15, December.
    5. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "The Observational Equivalence of Natural and Unnatural Rate Theories of Macroeconomics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 631-640, June.
    6. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1975. "An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(6), pages 1113-1144, December.
    7. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
    8. John A. Carlson, 1977. "A Study of Price Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 6, number 1, pages 27-56, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Robert J. Gordon, 1975. "The Impact of Aggregate Demand on Prices," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(3), pages 613-670.
    10. Fischer, Stanley & Cooper, J Phillip, 1973. "Stabilization Policy and Lags," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(4), pages 847-877, July-Aug..
    11. R. A. Jolly, 1978. "Comment," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 1(60), pages 38-42, December.
    12. T. G. Parry, 1978. "Comment," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 1(57), pages 39-41, January.
    13. M. T. Skully, 1978. "Comment," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 1(57), pages 58-59, January.
    14. Perloff, Jeffrey M. & Wachter, Michael L., 1979. "A production function--nonaccelerating inflation approach to potential output : Is measured potential output too high?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 113-163, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? An Econometric Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 22-51, February.
    2. Devadoss, Stephen, 1994. "Sluggish Price Adjustments And The Effectiveness Of Aggregate Demand Policies At The Sectoral Level," A.E. Research Series 305122, University of Idaho, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology.
    3. Buiter, Willem H., 1983. "Real effects of anticipated and unanticipated money : Some problems of estimation and hypothesis testing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 207-224.
    4. Michael D. Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 1987. "The Importance of Stable Money: Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Money in Historical Perspective, pages 255-270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "Does Anticipated Aggregate Demand Policy Matter? Further Econometric Results," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 788-802, September.
    6. Makin, John H, 1982. "Anticipated Money, Inflation Uncertainty and Real Economic Activity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(1), pages 126-134, February.
    7. Yash P. Mehra, 1985. "Inflationary expectations, money growth, and the vanishing liquidity effect of money on interest : a further investigation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 71(Mar), pages 23-35.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brock K. Short, 1979. "A Review of Bill C-57, the Proposed New Bank Act," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 5(2), pages 273-280, Spring.
    2. Gauger, Jean Ann, 1984. "Three essays on the neutrality of anticipated money growth," ISU General Staff Papers 198401010800008758, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Basch, Michael & Paredes-Molina, Ricardo D., 1996. "Are there dual labor markets in Chile?: empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 297-312, August.
    4. Dostaler, Gilles, 1991. "Les premiers travaux économiques de Gunnar Myrdal," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 67(2), pages 192-217, juin.
    5. Makin, John H, 1982. "Anticipated Money, Inflation Uncertainty and Real Economic Activity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(1), pages 126-134, February.
    6. Vaujany, François-Xavier de & Grimand, Amaury, 2005. "Moving towards appropriability of academic knowledge: a post-actionalist perspective," MPRA Paper 1317, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Rogério Arthmar, 2001. "O conceito clássico de poupança e a Escola de Estocolmo [The classical concept of saving and the Stockholm School]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 11(2), pages 51-82, December.
    8. Fields, L. Paige & Fraser, Donald R. & Kolari, James W., 2007. "Bidder returns in bancassurance mergers: Is there evidence of synergy?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3646-3662, December.
    9. Abel, Andrew B. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1983. "An integrated view of tests of rationality, market efficiency and the short-run neutrality of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 3-24.
    10. W D A Bryant, 2009. "General Equilibrium:Theory and Evidence," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 6875, January.
    11. Zijp, R. van, 1990. "New classical monetary business cycle theory," Serie Research Memoranda 0058, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    12. Paul Oslington, 2012. "General Equilibrium: Theory and Evidence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(282), pages 446-448, September.
    13. John B. Taylor, 1983. "Rational Expectations Models in Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 1224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Scott A. Boorman & Paul R. Levitt, 1983. "Blockmodeling Complex Statutes: Mapping Techniques Based on Combinatorial Optimization for Analyzing Economic Legislation and Its Stress Points over Time," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 665, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    15. José Villacis, 2016. "A Unified Theory of Monetary Dynamics," Review of Social Sciences, LAR Center Press, vol. 1(4), pages 1-12, April.
    16. Paola Assael & Felipe Larraín, 1994. "El Ciclo Político-económico: Teoría, Evidencia y Extensión para una Economía Abierta," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 31(92), pages 87-114.
    17. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    18. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Erich Pinzon-Fuchs & Matthieu Renault & Francesco Sergi, 2015. "Criticizing the Lucas Critique: Macroeconometricians' Response to Robert Lucas," Post-Print halshs-01179114, HAL.
    19. Visser, H., 1987. "A survey of recent developments in monetary theory," Serie Research Memoranda 0003, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    20. V. B. Hall, 1980. "Excess Demand and ExDectations Influences on Price Changes in Australian Manufacturing Industry," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 56(152), pages 69-81, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0361. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.