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Does Anticipated Aggregate Demand Policy Matter? Further Econometric results

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  • Frederic S. Mishkin

Abstract

A heated debate has arisen over what Modigliani has dubbed the Macro Rational Expections (MRE) hypothesis. This hypothesis embodies two component hypotheses: 1) rational expectations and 2) short-run neutrality -- i.e., that anticipated changes in aggregate demand will have already been taken into account in economic agents' behavior and will thus evoke no output or employment response. Together these component hypotheses imply that deterministic feedback policy rules will have no effect on business cycle fluctuations. The irrelevance of these types of policy rules is inconsistent with much previous macro theorizing as well as with the views of policymakers. It is thus an extremely controversial proposition which requires a wide range of empirical research. This paper is a sequel to a previous paper by the author. That paper developed a methodology for testing the MRE hypothesis and found that anticipated money growth does matter to the business cycle. This paper extends the analyses to cases where the rate of nominal GNP growth or the inflation rate, rather than money growth, is the aggregate demand variable. The empirical results are also negative on the MRE hypothesis and its corresponding policy ineffectiveness proposition.

Suggested Citation

  • Frederic S. Mishkin, 1981. "Does Anticipated Aggregate Demand Policy Matter? Further Econometric results," NBER Working Papers 0789, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0789
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    1. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "A Classical Macroeconometric Model for the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 207-237, April.
    2. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? An Econometric Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 22-51, February.
    3. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-115, March.
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    6. Small, David H, 1979. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(5), pages 996-1003, December.
    7. Abel, Andrew B. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1983. "An integrated view of tests of rationality, market efficiency and the short-run neutrality of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 3-24.
    8. Fair, Ray C, 1979. "An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(4), pages 701-718, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Magda Kandil, 2009. "Does Demand Volatility Lower Growth and Raise Inflation? Evidence from the Caribbean," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, , vol. 0(1), pages 45-69, January-J.
    2. Ghosal, Vivek & Loungani, Prakash, 1996. "Evidence on Nominal Wage Rigidity from a Panel of U.S. Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 650-668, November.
    3. Zakaria Babutsidze, 2012. "Asymmetric (S,s) Pricing: Implications for Monetary Policy," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 177-204.
    4. Bordo, Michael D., 1986. "Explorations in monetary history: A survey of the literature," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 339-415, October.
    5. Robert J. Gordon, 2011. "The History of the Phillips Curve: Consensus and Bifurcation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 10-50, January.
    6. Shelley, Gary L. & Wallace, Frederick H., 1995. "A reexamination of Mishkin's neutrality test," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 255-265, August.
    7. Rahmi Yamak & Yakup Kucukkale, 2002. "Anticipated versus Unanticipated Money in Turkey," Macroeconomics 0211011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Why are the effects of money-supply shocks asymmetric? Convex aggregate supply or "pushing on a string"?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 605-619.
    9. Kim, Jinbang & De Marchi, Neil & Morgan, Mary S., 1995. "Empirical model particularities and belief in the natural rate hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 81-102, May.
    10. repec:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:668-681 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Will Monetary Policy Become More of a Science?," NBER Working Papers 13566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Thomas Mayer, 2012. "Ziliak and McCloskey's Criticisms of Significance Tests: An Assessment," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 9(3), pages 256-297, September.
    13. repec:ags:afjecr:274744 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Thomas Palley, 2007. "Seeking Full Employment Again:," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(6), pages 14-50.
    15. repec:wsi:wsbook:6875 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Huayu Sun & Yue Ma, 2004. "Money and price relationship in China," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 225-247.
    17. repec:eee:joecas:v:10:y:2013:i:1:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Azzam, Azzeddine & Pagaoulatos, Emilio, 1985. "Unanticipated Money Growth And Livestock Supply Decisions," 1985 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Ames, Iowa 278584, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    19. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2011. "Monetary Policy Strategy: Lessons from the Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Sharon J. Erenburg, "undated". "Linking Public Capital to Economic Performance, Public Capital: The Missing Link Between Investment and Economic Growth ," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive 14, Levy Economics Institute.
    21. Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2017. "Stagflation and the crossroad in macroeconomics: the struggle between structural and New Classical macroeconometrics," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01625188, HAL.
    22. Ermini, Luigi & Chang, Dongkoo, 1996. "Testing the joint hypothesis of rationality and neutrality under seasonal cointegration: The case of Korea," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 363-386, October.
    23. Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2017. "Stagflation and the crossroad in macroeconomics: the struggle between structural and New Classical macroeconometrics," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17043, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    24. Antonio Aznar & Mª Teresa Aparicio & Francisco Javier Trivez, 1991. "Modelo LSW versus modelo NRH-GAP, aplicación de una nueva metodología de selección de modelos," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 15(3), pages 575-599, September.

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