IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v34y2010i11p2652-2664.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic portfolio choice with deferred annuities

Author

Listed:
  • Horneff, Wolfram
  • Maurer, Raimond
  • Rogalla, Ralph

Abstract

We derive the optimal life-cycle portfolio choice and consumption pattern for households facing uncertain labor income, risky capital market, and mortality risk. In addition to stocks and bonds, the households have access to deferred annuities. Deferred payout life annuities are financial contracts providing life-long income to the annuitant after a specified period of time conditional on survival. We find that deferred annuities play an important role in household portfolios and generate significant welfare gains. Households with high benefits from state pensions, moderate risk aversion and moderate labor income risk purchase deferred annuities from age 40 and gradually increase their portfolio share. At retirement, deferred annuities account for 78% of total financial wealth. Households with low state pensions and high labor income risk purchase more annuities and earlier. Uncertainty with respect to future mortality rates has the same effect, i.e. household hedge against longevity risks using deferred annuities.

Suggested Citation

  • Horneff, Wolfram & Maurer, Raimond & Rogalla, Ralph, 2010. "Dynamic portfolio choice with deferred annuities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2652-2664, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:11:p:2652-2664
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378-4266(10)00185-8
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pelizzon, Loriana & Weber, Guglielmo, 2009. "Efficient portfolios when housing needs change over the life cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2110-2121, November.
    2. Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell & Ralph Rogalla, 2010. "The Effect of Uncertain Labor Income and Social Security on Life-cycle Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 15682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Broeders, Dirk & Chen, An, 2010. "Pension regulation and the market value of pension liabilities: A contingent claims analysis using Parisian options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1201-1214, June.
    4. Amy Finkelstein & James Poterba, 2004. "Adverse Selection in Insurance Markets: Policyholder Evidence from the U.K. Annuity Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 183-208, February.
    5. Francisco J. Gomes & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Luis M. Viceira, 2008. "Optimal Life-Cycle Investing with Flexible Labor Supply: A Welfare Analysis of Life-Cycle Funds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 297-303, May.
    6. Olivia S. Mitchell, 1999. "New Evidence on the Money's Worth of Individual Annuities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1299-1318, December.
    7. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 2002. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 47-89, January.
    8. Moshe A. Milevsky, 2005. "The Implied Longevity Yield: A Note on Developing an Index for Life Annuities," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 72(2), pages 302-320.
    9. Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Consumption and Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 491-533.
    10. Francisco Gomes & Alexander Michaelides, 2005. "Optimal Life-Cycle Asset Allocation: Understanding the Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 869-904, April.
    11. Thomas Davidoff & Jeffrey R. Brown & Peter A. Diamond, 2005. "Annuities and Individual Welfare," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1573-1590, December.
    12. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J. G. & Dowd, Kevin, 2003. "Pensionmetrics 2: stochastic pension plan design during the distribution phase," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 29-47, August.
    13. Huang, Huaxiong & Milevsky, Moshe A., 2008. "Portfolio choice and mortality-contingent claims: The general HARA case," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 2444-2452, November.
    14. Cairns, Andrew J.G. & Blake, David & Dowd, Kevin, 2006. "Pricing Death: Frameworks for the Valuation and Securitization of Mortality Risk," ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the International Actuarial Association, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(01), pages 79-120, May.
    15. Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah, 1997. "Market Frictions, Savings Behavior, And Portfolio Choice," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(01), pages 76-101, January.
    16. Horneff, Wolfram J. & Maurer, Raimond H. & Stamos, Michael Z., 2008. "Life-cycle asset allocation with annuity markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3590-3612, November.
    17. Milevsky, Moshe A. & Young, Virginia R., 2007. "Annuitization and asset allocation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 3138-3177, September.
    18. Brugiavini, Agar, 1993. "Uncertainty resolution and the timing of annuity purchases," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 31-62, January.
    19. Andrew J. G. Cairns & David Blake & Kevin Dowd, 2006. "A Two-Factor Model for Stochastic Mortality with Parameter Uncertainty: Theory and Calibration," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 687-718.
    20. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
    21. Milevsky, Moshe A. & David Promislow, S., 2001. "Mortality derivatives and the option to annuitise," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 299-318, December.
    22. Horneff, Wolfram J. & Maurer, Raimond H. & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Stamos, Michael Z., 2009. "Asset allocation and location over the life cycle with investment-linked survival-contingent payouts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1688-1699, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Horneff, Vanya & Maurer, Raimond & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Rogalla, Ralph, 2015. "Optimal life cycle portfolio choice with variable annuities offering liquidity and investment downside protection," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 91-107.
    2. Mahayni, Antje & Schneider, Judith C., 2012. "Variable annuities and the option to seek risk: Why should you diversify?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2417-2428.
    3. repec:eee:insuma:v:78:y:2018:i:c:p:157-173 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Blake, David & Wright, Douglas & Zhang, Yumeng, 2014. "Age-dependent investing: Optimal funding and investment strategies in defined contribution pension plans when members are rational life cycle financial planners," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 105-124.
    5. repec:taf:quantf:v:17:y:2017:i:3:p:335-351 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Steinorth, Petra & Mitchell, Olivia S., 2015. "Valuing variable annuities with guaranteed minimum lifetime withdrawal benefits," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 246-258.
    7. Marekwica, Marcel, 2012. "Optimal tax-timing and asset allocation when tax rebates on capital losses are limited," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2048-2063.
    8. Post Thomas, 2012. "Individual Welfare Gains from Deferred Life-Annuities under Stochastic Mortality," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-26, June.
    9. Hanewald, Katja & Piggott, John & Sherris, Michael, 2013. "Individual post-retirement longevity risk management under systematic mortality risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 87-97.
    10. Post, Thomas & Hanewald, Katja, 2013. "Longevity risk, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 200-220.
    11. Fedor Iskhakov & Susan Thorp & Hazel Bateman, 2015. "Optimal Annuity Purchases for Australian Retirees," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91(293), pages 139-154, June.
    12. Christelis, Dimitris & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Haliassos, Michael, 2011. "Stockholding: Participation, location, and spillovers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1918-1930, August.
    13. Blake, David & El Karoui, Nicole & Loisel, Stéphane & MacMinn, Richard, 2018. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2015–16 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 157-173.
    14. Ebrahim, M. Shahid & Mathur, Ike & ap Gwilym, Rhys, 2014. "Integrating corporate ownership and pension fund structures: A general equilibrium approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 553-569.
    15. Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell & Ralph Rogalla & Vasily Kartashov, 2013. "Lifecycle Portfolio Choice With Systematic Longevity Risk and Variable Investment—Linked Deferred Annuities," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(3), pages 649-676, September.
    16. Thomas Post & Katja Hanewald, 2010. "Stochastic Mortality, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-040, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    17. repec:eee:insuma:v:78:y:2018:i:c:p:267-285 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:eee:insuma:v:76:y:2017:i:c:p:75-86 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Agnieszka Karolina Konicz & David Pisinger & Alex Weissensteiner, 2016. "Optimal retirement planning with a focus on single and joint life annuities," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 275-295, February.
    20. Sutcliffe, Charles, 2015. "Trading death: The implications of annuity replication for the annuity puzzle, arbitrage, speculation and portfolios," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 163-174.
    21. Francesco Menoncin & Luca Regis, 2015. "Longevity assets and pre-retirement consumption/portfolio decisions," Working Papers 2/2015, IMT Institute for Advanced Studies Lucca, revised May 2015.
    22. Chen, Hsuan-Chi & Chung, San-Lin & Ho, Keng-Yu, 2011. "The diversification effects of volatility-related assets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1179-1189, May.
    23. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2012. "Optimal Portfolios for Occupational Funds under Time-Varying Correlations in Bull and Bear Markets? Assessing the Ex-Post Economic Value," Working Papers 455, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:11:p:2652-2664. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.