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Variable payout annuities and dynamic portfolio choice in retirement

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  • HORNEFF, WOLFRAM J.
  • MAURER, RAIMOND H.
  • MITCHELL, OLIVIA S.
  • STAMOS, MICHAEL Z.

Abstract

Many retirees hope to continue earning capital market rewards on their saving while avoiding outliving their funds during retirement. We model a dynamic utility maximizing investor who seeks to benefit from holding both equity and longevity insurance. She is free to adjust her portfolio allocation of her financial wealth as well as of the annuity over time, and she can purchase variable payout annuities any time and incrementally. In this setting, we show that the retiree will not fully annuitize even without bequests; rather, she will combine variable annuities with withdrawals from her liquid financial wealth so as to match her desired consumption profile. Optimal stock exposures decrease over time, both within the variable annuity and the withdrawal plan. Welfare gains from this strategy can amount to 40% of financial wealth, depending on risk parameters and other resources; additionally, many retirees will do almost as well as the fully optimized outcome if they hold variable annuities invested 60/40 in stocks/bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Horneff, Wolfram J. & Maurer, Raimond H. & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Stamos, Michael Z., 2010. "Variable payout annuities and dynamic portfolio choice in retirement," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 163-183, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jpenef:v:9:y:2010:i:02:p:163-183_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell & Ralph Rogalla & Vasily Kartashov, 2013. "Lifecycle Portfolio Choice With Systematic Longevity Risk and Variable Investment—Linked Deferred Annuities," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(3), pages 649-676, September.
    2. Kaschützke, B. & Maurer, R., 2016. "Investing and Portfolio Allocation for Retirement," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 567-608, Elsevier.
    3. Joachim Inkmann & Paula Lopes & Alexander Michaelides, 2011. "How Deep Is the Annuity Market Participation Puzzle?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(1), pages 279-319.
    4. Jingjing Chai & Wolfram Horneff & Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2009. "Extending Life Cycle Models of Optimal Portfolio Choice: Integrating Flexible Work, Endogenous Retirement, and Investment Decisions with Lifetime Payouts," Working Papers wp204, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    5. Steinorth, Petra & Mitchell, Olivia S., 2015. "Valuing variable annuities with guaranteed minimum lifetime withdrawal benefits," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 246-258.
    6. Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua D. Rauh, 2012. "Linking Benefits to Investment Performance in US Public Pension Systems," NBER Working Papers 18491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Antoine Bommier & François Grand, 2014. "Too risk averse to purchase insurance?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 135-166, April.
    8. Gomes, Francisco J & Haliassos, Michael & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2020. "Household Finance," CEPR Discussion Papers 14502, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Sutcliffe, Charles, 2015. "Trading death: The implications of annuity replication for the annuity puzzle, arbitrage, speculation and portfolios," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 163-174.
    10. Hanewald, Katja & Piggott, John & Sherris, Michael, 2013. "Individual post-retirement longevity risk management under systematic mortality risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 87-97.
    11. Hans Fehr, 2009. "Computable Stochastic Equilibrium Models and Their Use in Pension- and Ageing Research," De Economist, Springer, vol. 157(4), pages 359-416, December.
    12. Koijen, Ralph & Yogo, Motohiro, 2018. "The Fragility of Market Risk Insurance," CEPR Discussion Papers 12560, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Lee Lockwood, 2012. "Bequest Motives and the Annuity Puzzle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 226-243, April.
    14. Maria Alexandrova & Nadine Gatzert, 2019. "What Do We Know About Annuitization Decisions?," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 57-100, March.
    15. Horneff, Vanya & Kaschãœtzke, Barbara & Maurer, Raimond & Rogalla, Ralph, 2014. "Welfare implications of product choice regulation during the payout phase of funded pensions," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 272-296, July.
    16. Vaz, Thalita A. & Machado, Sérgio J. & Bortoluzzo, Adriana B., 2011. "Estimation of Conversion Rates into Annuities: A Brazilian Perspective," Insper Working Papers wpe_249, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    17. Jeffrey R. Brown & Arie Kapteyn & Erzo F.P. Luttmer & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2013. "Cognitive Constraints on Valuing Annuities," NBER Working Papers 19168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Balter, Anne G. & Kallestrup-Lamb, Malene & Rangvid, Jesper, 2021. "Macro longevity risk and the choice between annuity products: Evidence from Denmark," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 355-362.
    19. Thomas Bernhardt & Catherine Donnelly, 2019. "Modern tontine with bequest: innovation in pooled annuity products," Papers 1903.05990, arXiv.org.
    20. Antoine Bommier, Francois Le Grand, "undated". "Too Risk Averse to Purchase Insurance? A Theoretical Glance at the Annuity Puzzle," Working Papers ETH-RC-12-002, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    21. Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell & Ralph Rogalla, 2010. "The Effect of Uncertain Labor Income and Social Security on Life-cycle Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 15682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Thomas Post, 2009. "Individual Welfare Gains from Deferred Life-Annuities under Stochastic Lee-Carter Mortality," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-022, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    23. Bernhardt, Thomas & Donnelly, Catherine, 2019. "Modern tontine with bequest: Innovation in pooled annuity products," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 168-188.
    24. Moenig, Thorsten, 2021. "Variable annuities: Market incompleteness and policyholder behavior," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 63-78.
    25. Novy-Marx, Robert & Rauh, Joshua D., 2014. "Linking benefits to investment performance in US public pension systems," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 47-61.

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