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Betting on Death and Capital Markets in Retirement: A Shortfall Risk Analysis of Life Annuities

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  • Ivica Dus
  • Raimond Maurer
  • Olivia S. Mitchell

Abstract

Retirees must draw down their accumulated assets in an orderly fashion, so as not to exhaust their funds too soon. We compare alternative phased withdrawal strategies to a life annuity benchmark using German data; one particular phased withdrawal rule seems attractive, as it offers relatively low expected shortfall risk, good expected payouts for the retiree during his life, and some bequest potential; results are similar for the US case. Delayed annuitization may also appeal, as it offers higher expected benefits with lower expected shortfalls. Requiring unisex mortality tables in annuity pric-ing raises women's risks under a phased withdrawal program.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivica Dus & Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2005. "Betting on Death and Capital Markets in Retirement: A Shortfall Risk Analysis of Life Annuities," NBER Working Papers 11271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11271
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    2. Wiafe, Osei K. & Basu, Anup K. & Chen, En Te, 2020. "Portfolio choice after retirement: Should self-annuitisation strategies hold more equities?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 241-255.
    3. Andrew Clare & James Seaton & Peter N. Smith & Stephen Thomas, 2017. "Decumulation, Sequencing Risk and the Safe Withdrawal Rate: Why the 4% Withdrawal Rule leaves Money on the Table," Discussion Papers 17/06, Department of Economics, University of York.
    4. Lambregts, Timo R. & Schut, Frederik T., 2020. "Displaced, disliked and misunderstood: A systematic review of the reasons for low uptake of long-term care insurance and life annuities," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    5. Vanya Horneff & Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2016. "Putting the Pension Back in 401(k) Plans: Optimal versus Default Longevity Income Annuities," NBER Working Papers 22717, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Juan Esteban Halcartegaray & Jorge Miranda, 2011. "Efectos del SCOMP sobre la Elección individual de Modalidad de Pensión," Working Papers 52, Superintendencia de Pensiones, revised Aug 2012.
    7. Wolfram J. Horneff & Raimond H. Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchel & Michael Z. Stamos, 2008. "Asset Allocation and Location over the Life Cycle with Survival-Contingent Payouts," Working Papers wp177, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    8. Wolfram Horneff & Raimond Maurer & Olivia Mitchell & Ivica Dus, 2006. "Optimizing the Retirement Portfolio: Asset Allocation, Annuitization, and Risk Aversion," Working Papers wp124, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    9. Vaz, Thalita A. & Machado, Sérgio J. & Bortoluzzo, Adriana B., 2011. "Estimation of Conversion Rates into Annuities: A Brazilian Perspective," Insper Working Papers wpe_249, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    10. Wiafe, Osei K. & Basu, Anup K. & Chen, John, 2017. "The effects of age pension on retirement drawdown choices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 81-87.
    11. Wolfram J. Horneff & Raimond H. Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell & Michael Z. Stamos, 2008. "Asset Allocation and Location over the Life Cycle with Survival-Contingent Payouts," NBER Working Papers 14055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Horneff, Wolfram J. & Maurer, Raimond H. & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Stamos, Michael Z., 2007. "Money in motion: Dynamic portfolio choice in retirement," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/21, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    13. Sun Wei & Triest Robert K. & Webb Anthony, 2008. "Optimal Retirement Asset Decumulation Strategies: The Impact of Housing Wealth," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-29, September.
    14. Peter J. Brady, 2012. "Can 401(k) Plans Provide Adequate Retirement Resources?," Public Finance Review, , vol. 40(2), pages 177-206, March.
    15. Horneff, Wolfram J. & Maurer, Raimond H. & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Stamos, Michael Z., 2010. "Variable payout annuities and dynamic portfolio choice in retirement," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 163-183, April.
    16. Andrew D. Clare & James Seaton & Peter N. Smith & Stephen H. Thomas, 2021. "Can sustainable withdrawal rates be enhanced by trend following?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 27-41, January.
    17. Kaschützke, B. & Maurer, R., 2016. "Investing and Portfolio Allocation for Retirement," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 567-608, Elsevier.
    18. Warshawsky, Mark, 2015. "Reforming Retirement Income: Annuitization, Combination Strategies, and Required Minimum Distributions," Working Papers 06834, George Mason University, Mercatus Center.
    19. Horneff, Wolfram J. & Maurer, Raimond H. & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Dus, Ivica, 2008. "Following the rules: Integrating asset allocation and annuitization in retirement portfolios," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 396-408, February.
    20. Horneff, Vanya & Kaschützke, Barbara & Maurer, Raimond & Rogalla, Ralph, 2014. "Welfare implications of product choice regulation during the payout phase of funded pensions," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 272-296, July.
    21. Benjamin Avanzi & Lewis de Felice, 2023. "Optimal Strategies for the Decumulation of Retirement Savings under Differing Appetites for Liquidity and Investment Risks," Papers 2312.14355, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    22. Pang, Gaobo & Warshawsky, Mark, 2010. "Optimizing the equity-bond-annuity portfolio in retirement: The impact of uncertain health expenses," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 198-209, February.

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    JEL classification:

    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Retirement Plans; Private Pensions

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