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Betting on Death and Capital Markets in Retirement: A Shortfall Risk Analysis of Life Annuities

Author

Listed:
  • Ivica Dus
  • Raimond Maurer
  • Olivia S. Mitchell

Abstract

Retirees must draw down their accumulated assets in an orderly fashion, so as not to exhaust their funds too soon. We compare alternative phased withdrawal strategies to a life annuity benchmark using German data; one particular phased withdrawal rule seems attractive, as it offers relatively low expected shortfall risk, good expected payouts for the retiree during his life, and some bequest potential; results are similar for the US case. Delayed annuitization may also appeal, as it offers higher expected benefits with lower expected shortfalls. Requiring unisex mortality tables in annuity pric-ing raises women's risks under a phased withdrawal program.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivica Dus & Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2005. "Betting on Death and Capital Markets in Retirement: A Shortfall Risk Analysis of Life Annuities," NBER Working Papers 11271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11271
    Note: AG LS
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Clare & James Seaton & Peter N. Smith & Stephen Thomas, 2017. "Decumulation, Sequencing Risk and the Safe Withdrawal Rate: Why the 4% Withdrawal Rule leaves Money on the Table," Discussion Papers 17/06, Department of Economics, University of York.
    2. repec:eee:hapoch:v1_567 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Sun Wei & Triest Robert K. & Webb Anthony, 2008. "Optimal Retirement Asset Decumulation Strategies: The Impact of Housing Wealth," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-29, September.
    4. Wolfram Horneff & Raimond Maurer & Olivia Mitchell & Michael Stamos, 2007. "Money in Motion: Dynamic Portfolio Choice in Retirement," Working Papers wp152, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    5. Juan Esteban Halcartegaray & Jorge Miranda, 2011. "Efectos del SCOMP sobre la Elección individual de Modalidad de Pensión," Working Papers 52, Superintendencia de Pensiones, revised Aug 2012.
    6. Wolfram J. Horneff & Raimond H. Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchel & Michael Z. Stamos, 2008. "Asset Allocation and Location over the Life Cycle with Survival-Contingent Payouts," Working Papers wp177, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    7. Horneff, Vanya & Kaschützke, Barbara & Maurer, Raimond & Rogalla, Ralph, 2014. "Welfare implications of product choice regulation during the payout phase of funded pensions," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 272-296, July.
    8. Wolfram Horneff & Raimond Maurer & Olivia Mitchell & Ivica Dus, 2006. "Optimizing the Retirement Portfolio: Asset Allocation, Annuitization, and Risk Aversion," Working Papers wp124, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    9. Vaz, Thalita A. & Machado, Sérgio J. & Bortoluzzo, Adriana B., 2011. "Estimation of Conversion Rates into Annuities: A Brazilian Perspective," Insper Working Papers wpe_249, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    10. Wiafe, Osei K. & Basu, Anup K. & Chen, John, 2017. "The effects of age pension on retirement drawdown choices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 81-87.
    11. Wolfram J. Horneff & Raimond H. Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell & Michael Z. Stamos, 2008. "Asset Allocation and Location over the Life Cycle with Survival-Contingent Payouts," NBER Working Papers 14055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Retirement Plans; Private Pensions

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