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Stock Market Mean Reversion and the Optimal Equity Allocation of a Long-Lived Investor

Author

Listed:
  • John Y. Campbell

    () (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Joao Cocco

    () (Harvard University)

  • Francisco Gomes

    () (Harvard University)

  • Pascal Maenhout

    () (Harvard University)

  • Luis M. Viceira

    () (Harvard Business School)

Abstract

This paper solves numerically the intertemporal consumption and portfolio choice problem of an infinitely-lived investor with Epstein-Zin-Weil utility who faces a time-varying equity premium. We find that the optimal portfolio allocation to stocks is almost linear and the optimal log consumption-wealth ratio is almost quadratic in the equity premium except at the upper extreme of the state space, where both optimal rules flatten out. With the exception of this flattening, the solutions are very close to the approximate analytical solutions proposed by Campbell and Viceira (1999). We also consider a constrained version of the problem in which the investor faces borrowing and short-sales constraints. These constraints bind when the equity premium moves away from its mean in either direction, and are particularly severe for risk-tolerant investors. The optimal constrained portfolio rules are similar but not identical to the optimal unconstrained rules with the constraints imposed. The portfolio constraints also affect the optimal consumption policy, reducing the average consumption-wealth ratio whenever the investor's elasticity of intertemporal substitution is below one, and reducing the variability of the optimal consumption-wealth ratio.

Suggested Citation

  • John Y. Campbell & Joao Cocco & Francisco Gomes & Pascal Maenhout & Luis M. Viceira, 1999. "Stock Market Mean Reversion and the Optimal Equity Allocation of a Long-Lived Investor," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1344, Society for Computational Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf9:1344
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    Cited by:

    1. George Chacko & Luis M. Viceira, 2005. "Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1369-1402.
    2. Mark Broadie & Weiwei Shen, 2016. "High-Dimensional Portfolio Optimization With Transaction Costs," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(04), pages 1-49, June.
    3. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3503-3544, November.
    4. Kuznitz, Arik & Kandel, Shmuel & Fos, Vyacheslav, 2008. "A portfolio choice model with utility from anticipation of future consumption and stock market mean reversion," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1338-1352, November.
    5. Mathias Sommer, 2005. "Trends in German households’ portfolio behavior - assessing the importance of age- and cohort-effects," MEA discussion paper series 05082, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    6. Michael Haliassos & Alexander Michaelides, 2003. "Portfolio Choice and Liquidity Constraints," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 143-177, February.
    7. Alois Geyer & Michael Hanke & Alex Weissensteiner, 2009. "A stochastic programming approach for multi-period portfolio optimization," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 187-208, May.
    8. Campbell, John Y. & Chan, Yeung Lewis & Viceira, Luis M., 2003. "A multivariate model of strategic asset allocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 41-80, January.
    9. Luis M. Viceira, 2001. "Optimal Portfolio Choice for Long-Horizon Investors with Nontradable Labor Income," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 433-470, April.
    10. Ivica Dus & Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2005. "Betting on Death and Capital Markets in Retirement: A Shortfall Risk Analysis of Life Annuities," NBER Working Papers 11271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Wu, Hui & Ma, Chaoqun & Yue, Shengjie, 2017. "Momentum in strategic asset allocation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 115-127.
    12. Hugo Benítez-Silva, 2003. "Labor Supply Flexibility and Portfolio Choice: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers wp056, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    13. Ivica Dus & Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2003. "Betting on Death and Capital Markets in Retirement: A Shortfall Risk Analysis of Life Annuities versus Phased Withdrawal Plans," Working Papers wp063, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    14. Jarraya, Bilel & Bouri, Abdelfettah, 2013. "A Theoretical Assessment on Optimal Asset Allocations in Insurance Industry," MPRA Paper 53534, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.
    15. Graciela Sanromán, 2002. "A Discrete Choice Analysis of the Household Shares of Risky Assets," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0702, Department of Economics - dECON.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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