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Does large volatility help?—stochastic population forecasting technology in explaining real estate price process

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  • Yuan Cheng
  • Xuehui Han

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Abstract

This paper investigates the association between real estate demand and the volatility of population changes. In a financial liberalized housing market, the housing mortgage loan implies insurance function to homeowners through the default option. Larger expected volatilities in the population imply a higher value of the default option. When analyzing the impact of the long-term population development on housing prices, the traditional deterministic population forecasting employed by previous research provides limited credibility. By means of the newly developed stochastic population forecasting methodology and counterfactual numerical simulations, we found a huge volatility associated with long-term population forecasting. A positive correlation between the expected volatility of population changes and real estate demand is ascertained. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Yuan Cheng & Xuehui Han, 2013. "Does large volatility help?—stochastic population forecasting technology in explaining real estate price process," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 323-356, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:26:y:2013:i:1:p:323-356 DOI: 10.1007/s00148-010-0349-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew B. Abel, 2003. "The Effects of a Baby Boom on Stock Prices and Capital Accumulation in the Presence of Social Security," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 551-578, March.
    2. Nathalie Girouard & Mike Kennedy & Paul van den Noord & Christophe André, 2006. "Recent House Price Developments: The Role of Fundamentals," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 475, OECD Publishing.
    3. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2009. "Moral and Social Constraints to Strategic Default on Mortgages," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/27, European University Institute.
    4. Chester Foster & Robert Order, 1985. "FHA Terminations: A Prelude to Rational Mortgage Pricing," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(3), pages 273-291.
    5. James B. Kau & Taewon Kim, 1994. "Waiting to Default: The Value of Delay," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 22(3), pages 539-551.
    6. Hilary W. Hoynes & Daniel L. McFadden, 1996. "The Impact of Demographics on Housing and Nonhousing Wealth in the United States," NBER Chapters,in: The Economic Effects of Aging in the United States and Japan, pages 153-194 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    8. James M. Poterba, 2001. "Demographic Structure And Asset Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 565-584, November.
    9. Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "Will Bequests Attenuate The Predicted Meltdown In Stock Prices When Baby Boomers Retire?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, pages 589-595.
    10. Han, Xuehui, 2010. "Housing demand in Shanghai: A discrete choice approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 355-376, June.
    11. Jan Hoem & Dan Madien & Jørgen Nielsen & Else-Marie Ohlsen & Hans Hansen & Bo Rennermalm, 1981. "Experiments in modelling recent Danish fertility curves," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 18(2), pages 231-244, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Post, Thomas & Hanewald, Katja, 2013. "Longevity risk, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, pages 200-220.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Default option; Volatilities; Stochastic population forecasting; D81; D91; J11;

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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