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Nufus Yapisindaki Degisimlerin Uzun Donem Konut Talebi Uzerindeki Etkileri

Author

Listed:
  • Yavuz Arslan
  • Evren Ceritoglu
  • Birol Kanik

Abstract

Bu calismada Turkiye icin nufus dagilimi dinamiklerinin uzun donemde konut talebi uzerindeki etkisi incelenmektedir. TUIK hanehalki butce anketi verileri kullanilarak hanehalki konut talebi hanehalkindaki bireylerin yas araliklari ile iliskilendirilmis ve her bir yas araligi icin konut talebi elde edilmistir. Bu tahmin sonuclari TUIK nufus projeksiyonlari ile birlestirilerek Turkiye icin uzun donem konut talebi projeksiyonu bulunmustur. Ekonometrik tahminler konut talebindeki buyumenin nufus artisinin yani sira Turk toplumunun nufus yapisindaki degisimlerinden etkilendigini gostermektedir. 2009-2050 yillari arasinda kalan donemde konut talebi yillik ortalama yuzde 1,48 oraninda artarken; soz konusu artisin yuzde 1,08�lik kisminin nufus artisindan ve kalan yuzde 0,4�luk artisin nufus yapisindaki degisimden kaynaklanacagi tahmin edilmektedir.

Suggested Citation

  • Yavuz Arslan & Evren Ceritoglu & Birol Kanik, 2014. "Nufus Yapisindaki Degisimlerin Uzun Donem Konut Talebi Uzerindeki Etkileri," Working Papers 1405, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1405
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    File URL: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Research/Working+Paperss/2014/14-05
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    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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