IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000092/012537.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Natural Disasters and Clientelism: the Case of Floods and Landslides in Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Jorge Gallego

Abstract

What are the e ects of natural disasters on electoral results? Some authors claim that catastrophes have a negative e ect on the survival of leaders in a democracy because voters have a propensity to punish politicians for not preventing or poorly handling a crisis. In contrast, this paper nds that these events might be bene cial for leaders. Disasters are linked to leader survival through clientelism: they generate an in- ow of resources in the form of aid, which increase money for buying votes. Analyzing the rainy season of 2010-2011 in Colombia, considered its worst disaster in history, I use a di erence-in-di erences strategy to show that in the local election incumbent parties bene ted from the disaster. The result is robust to di erent speci cations and alternative explanations. Moreover, places receiving more aid and those with judicial evidence of vote-buying irregularities, are more likely to reelect the incumbent, supporting the mechanism proposed by this paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Gallego, 2015. "Natural Disasters and Clientelism: the Case of Floods and Landslides in Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo 12537, Universidad del Rosario.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000092:012537
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repository.urosario.edu.co/bitstream/handle/10336/10819/12537.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Strömberg, 2007. "Natural Disasters, Economic Development, and Humanitarian Aid," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 199-222, Summer.
    2. Jorge Gallego, 2018. "Civil conflict and voting behavior: Evidence from Colombia," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(6), pages 601-621, November.
    3. Healy, Andrew & Malhotra, Neil, 2009. "Myopic Voters and Natural Disaster Policy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 103(3), pages 387-406, August.
    4. Abney, F. Glenn & Hill, Larry B., 1966. "Natural Disasters as a Political Variable: The Effect of a Hurricane on an Urban Election," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 974-981, December.
    5. Monica Escaleras & Nejat Anbarci & Charles Register, 2007. "Public sector corruption and major earthquakes: A potentially deadly interaction," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 132(1), pages 209-230, July.
    6. Katz, Jonathan N. & King, Gary, 1999. "A Statistical Model for Multiparty Electoral Data," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 93(1), pages 15-32, March.
    7. Jorge Gallego, 2015. "Self-enforcing clientelism," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 27(3), pages 401-427, July.
    8. Thomas Eisensee & David Strömberg, 2007. "News Droughts, News Floods, and U. S. Disaster Relief," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(2), pages 693-728.
    9. Keefer, Philip & Neumayer, Eric & Plümper, Thomas, 2011. "Earthquake Propensity and the Politics of Mortality Prevention," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1530-1541, September.
    10. Matthew E. Kahn, 2005. "The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 271-284, May.
    11. Jorge Gallego, 2016. "Civil Conflict and Voting Behavior: Evidence," Documentos de Trabajo 15162, Universidad del Rosario.
    12. Paul A. Raschky & Manijeh Schwindt, 2016. "Aid, Catastrophes and the Samaritan's Dilemma," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(332), pages 624-645, October.
    13. Paul A. Raschky & Manijeh Schwindt, 2016. "Aid, Catastrophes and the Samaritan's Dilemma," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(332), pages 624-645, October.
    14. Smith, Alastair & Bueno De Mesquita, Bruce, 2012. "Contingent Prize Allocation and Pivotal Voting," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 371-392, April.
    15. John Ferejohn, 1986. "Incumbent performance and electoral control," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 5-25, January.
    16. Toya, Hideki & Skidmore, Mark, 2007. "Economic development and the impacts of natural disasters," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 20-25, January.
    17. Roger Congleton, 2006. "The story of Katrina: New Orleans and the political economy of catastrophe," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 5-30, April.
    18. Anbarci, Nejat & Escaleras, Monica & Register, Charles A., 2005. "Earthquake fatalities: the interaction of nature and political economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1907-1933, September.
    19. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
    20. Yogesh Uppal, 2010. "Estimating Incumbency Effects In U.S. State Legislatures: A Quasi‐Experimental Study," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 180-199, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ahlerup, Pelle, 2013. "Natural Disasters and Government Turnover," Working Papers in Economics 554, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    2. Juan Carlos Martín & Concepción Román, 2021. "COVID-19 Is Examining the EU and the Member States: The Role of Attitudes and Sociodemographic Factors on Citizens’ Support towards National Policies," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-27, January.
    3. Leonardo Bonilla-Mejía & Iván Higuera-Mendieta, 2018. "Notas sobre la economía política del Caribe colombiano," Revista Economía y Región, Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, vol. 12(2), pages 7-41, December.
    4. Gallego, Jorge & Prem, Mounu & Vargas, Juan F., 2020. "Corruption in the Times of Pandemia," SocArXiv js8by, Center for Open Science.
    5. Kaustav Das & Atisha Ghosh & Pushkar Maitra, 2021. "Exogenous Shocks and Electoral Outcomes: Re-examining the Rational Voter Hypothesis," Monash Economics Working Papers 2021-13, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    6. Jeroen Klomp, 2020. "Election or Disaster Support?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(1), pages 205-220, January.
    7. Gabriel Angarita Tovar, 2017. "Choques de precios y elecciones: el café y la democracia en Colombia," Documentos CEDE 15608, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    8. Matthias Flückiger & Markus Ludwig & Ali Sina Önder, 2019. "Ebola and State Legitimacy," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(621), pages 2064-2089.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chun-Ping Chang & Aziz N. Berdiev, 2015. "Do natural disasters increase the likelihood that a government is replaced?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(17), pages 1788-1808, April.
    2. Lazzaroni, Sara & van Bergeijk, Peter A.G., 2014. "Natural disasters' impact, factors of resilience and development: A meta-analysis of the macroeconomic literature," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 333-346.
    3. Peter A. G. van Bergeijk & Sara Lazzaroni, 2015. "Macroeconomics of Natural Disasters: Strengths and Weaknesses of Meta‐Analysis Versus Review of Literature," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(6), pages 1050-1072, June.
    4. Jeroen Klomp, 2020. "Election or Disaster Support?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(1), pages 205-220, January.
    5. Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2009. "The Economics of Natural Disasters: A Survey," Research Department Publications 4649, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    6. Eiji Yamamura, 2014. "Impact of natural disaster on public sector corruption," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 161(3), pages 385-405, December.
    7. Eiji Yamamura, 2013. "Public sector corruption and the probability of technological disasters," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 233-255, August.
    8. Rahman, Muhammad Habibur & Anbarci, Nejat & Ulubaşoğlu, Mehmet A., 2022. "“Storm autocracies”: Islands as natural experiments," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    9. Meri Davlasheridze & Qing Miao, 2021. "Does post-disaster aid promote community resilience? Evidence from federal disaster programs," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 63-88, October.
    10. Francesco Bosello & Shouro Dasgupta, 2015. "Development, Climate Change Adaptation, and Maladaptation: Some Econometric Evidence," Working Papers 2015.97, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    11. Yamamura, Eiji, 2011. "Effect of free media on views regarding the safety of nuclear energy after the 2011 disasters in Japan: evidence using cross-country data," MPRA Paper 32011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Paul A. Raschky & Manijeh Schwindt, 2016. "Aid, Catastrophes and the Samaritan's Dilemma," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(332), pages 624-645, October.
    13. Jhorland Ayala-García & Sandy Dall’Erba, 2021. "The impact of preemptive investment on natural disasters," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 301, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    14. Kousky, Carolyn, 2014. "Informing climate adaptation: A review of the economic costs of natural disasters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 576-592.
    15. Yashobanta Parida & Prarthna Agarwal Goel & Joyita Roy Chowdhury & Prakash Kumar Sahoo & Tapaswini Nayak, 2021. "Do economic development and disaster adaptation measures reduce the impact of natural disasters? A district-level analysis, Odisha, India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 3487-3519, March.
    16. Paul A. Raschky & Manijeh Schwindt, 2016. "Aid, Catastrophes and the Samaritan's Dilemma," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(332), pages 624-645, October.
    17. Young Seok Song & Moo Jong Park, 2018. "A Study on Estimation Equation for Damage and Recovery Costs Considering Human Losses Focused on Natural Disasters in the Republic of Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-16, August.
    18. Jaap W.B. Bos & Jasmin Gröschl & Martien Lamers & Runliang Li & Mark Sanders & Vincent Schippers & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl, 2022. "How Do Institutions Affect the Impact of Natural Disasters?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10174, CESifo.
    19. Cavalcanti, Francisco, 2018. "Voters sometimes provide the wrong incentives. The lesson of the Brazilian drought industry," MPRA Paper 88317, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Eiji Yamamura, 2012. "Death tolls from natural disasters: Influence of interactions among fiscal decentralization, institutions and economic development," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2012_08, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Clientelism; Natural Disasters; Difference in differences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
    • H84 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Disaster Aid
    • Z18 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Public Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000092:012537. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Facultad de Economía (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ferosco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.