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Natural Disasters and Government Turnover

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  • Ahlerup, Pelle

    () (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

Abstract

Natural disasters have been linked to both violent conflict and, in some settings, poor economic growth, but do they also drive government parties out of office? We study gov- ernment turnover in a global sample of more than 200 elections to the executive. Natural disasters are associated with more frequent turnover, but not in highly democratic countries. The e¤ect of geophysical disasters is especially strong, and even stronger when endogeneity is addressed.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahlerup, Pelle, 2013. "Natural Disasters and Government Turnover," Working Papers in Economics 554, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0554
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2077/32312
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Angus Deaton, 2010. "Instruments, Randomization, and Learning about Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 424-455, June.
    2. Noy, Ilan, 2009. "The macroeconomic consequences of disasters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 221-231, March.
    3. Healy, Andrew & Malhotra, Neil, 2010. "Random Events, Economic Losses, and Retrospective Voting: Implications for Democratic Competence," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 5(2), pages 193-208, August.
    4. Quiroz Flores, Alejandro & Smith, Alastair, 2013. "Leader Survival and Natural Disasters," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(04), pages 821-843, October.
    5. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2011. "Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 923-947, May.
    6. Toya, Hideki & Skidmore, Mark, 2007. "Economic development and the impacts of natural disasters," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 20-25, January.
    7. Loayza, Norman V. & Olaberría, Eduardo & Rigolini, Jamele & Christiaensen, Luc, 2012. "Natural Disasters and Growth: Going Beyond the Averages," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1317-1336.
    8. Alberto Alesina & Dorian Carloni & Giampaolo Lecce, 2012. "The Electoral Consequences of Large Fiscal Adjustments," NBER Chapters,in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 531-570 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Jorge Gallego, 2015. "Natural Disasters and Clientelism: the Case of Floods and Landslides in Colombia," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 012537, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
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    11. Albala-Bertrand, J. M., 1993. "Political Economy of Large Natural Disasters: With Special Reference to Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198287650.
    12. Ahlerup, Pelle, 2013. "Are Natural Disasters Good for Economic Growth?," Working Papers in Economics 553, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    natural disasters; elections;

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • P48 - Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Political Economy; Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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