The Electoral Consequences of Large Fiscal Adjustments
The conventional wisdom regarding the political consequences of large reductions of budget deficits is that they are very costly for the governments which implement them: they are punished by voters at the following elections. In the present paper, instead, we find no evidence that governments which quickly reduce budget deficits are systematically voted out of office in a sample of 19 OECD countries from 1975 to 2008. We also take into consideration issues of reverse causality, namely the possibility that only "strong and popular" governments can implement fiscal adjustments and thus they are not voted out of office "despite" having reduced the deficits. In the end we conclude that many governments can reduce deficits avoiding an electoral defeat.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2011|
|Publication status:||published as The Electoral Consequences of Large Fiscal Adjustments , Alberto Alesina, Dorian Carloni, Giampaolo Lecce. in Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis , Alesina and Giavazzi. 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Roberto Perotti, 2012.
"The "Austerity Myth": Gain without Pain?,"
in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 307-354
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marco Buti & Paul Noord, 2004. "Fiscal Discretion and Elections in the Early Years of EMU," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 737-756, November.
- Brender, Adi & Drazen, Allan, 2005.
"Political budget cycles in new versus established democracies,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1271-1295, October.
- Adi Brender & Allan Drazen, 2004. "Political Budget Cycles in New versus Established Democracies," NBER Working Papers 10539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sebastian Hauptmeier & Martin Heipertz & Ludger Schuknecht, 2007.
"Expenditure Reform in Industrialised Countries: A Case-Study Approach,"
Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 293-342, 09.
- Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Heipertz, Martin & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2006. "Expenditure reform in industrialised countries: a case study approach," Working Paper Series 0634, European Central Bank.
- Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Heipertz, Martin & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2006. "Expenditure reform in industralised countries: a case study approach," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-50, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
- Marco Buti & Paul van den Noord, 2004. "Fiscal policy in EMU: Rules, discretion and political incentives," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 206, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Honkapohja, Seppo & Koskela, Erkki, 2002.
"The Economic Crisis of the 1990s in Finland,"
683, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
- Marco Buti & Alessandro Turrini & Paul Van den Noord & Pietro Biroli, 2008.
"Defying the 'Juncker Curse': Can Reformist Governments Be Re-elected?,"
European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015
324, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Marco Buti & Alessandro Turrini & Paul Noord & Pietro Biroli, 2009. "Defying the ‘Juncker curse’: can reformist governments be re-elected?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 65-100, February.
- Biroli, Pietro & Buti, Marco & Turrini, Alessandro Antonio & Van Den Noord, Paul, 2008. "Defying the 'Juncker Curse’: Can Reformist Governments Be Re-elected?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6875, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alexander Plekhanov & Manmohan S. Kumar & Daniel Leigh, 2007. "Fiscal Adjustments; Determinants and Macroeconomic Consequences," IMF Working Papers 07/178, International Monetary Fund.
- Marco Buti & Alessandro Turrini & Paul Van den Noord & Pietro Biroli, 2010. "Reforms and re-elections in OECD countries," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 25, pages 61-116, 01.
- Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1986.
"Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles,"
NBER Working Papers
1838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roberto Perotti, 2011. "The "Austerity Myth": Gain without Pain?," Working Papers 430, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Roberto Perotti, 2011. "The "Austerity myth": Gain Without Pain?," BIS Working Papers 362, Bank for International Settlements.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17655. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.