IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000092/015162.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Civil Conflict and Voting Behavior: Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Jorge Gallego

Abstract

What are the effects of war on political behavior? Colombia is an interesting case in which conflict and elections coexist, and illegal armed groups intentionally affect electoral outcomes. Nonetheless, groups use different strategies to alter these results. This paper argues that differential effects of violence on electoral outcomes are the result of deliberate strategies followed by illegal groups, which in turn, are a consequence of military conditions that differ between them. Using panel data from Senate elections from 1994 to 2006 and an instrumental variable approach to address potential endogeneity concerns, this paper shows that guerrilla violence decreases turnout, while paramilitary violence has no effect on participation, but reduces electoral competition and benefits non-traditional third parties. FARC violence is significantly higher during election years, while paramilitary violence is lower. This is consistent with the hypothesis that the guerrilla’s strategy is to sabotage elections, while paramilitaries establish alliances with certain candidates

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Gallego, 2016. "Civil Conflict and Voting Behavior: Evidence," Documentos de Trabajo 015162, Universidad del Rosario.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000092:015162
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repository.urosario.edu.co/bitstream/handle/10336/12435/dt194.pdf?sequence=4&isAllowed=y
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arzu Kibris, 2011. "Funerals and Elections: The Effects of Terrorism on Voting Behavior in Turkey," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 55(2), pages 220-247, April.
    2. Berrebi, Claude & Klor, Esteban F., 2008. "Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism? Direct Evidence from the Israeli Electorate," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 102(3), pages 279-301, August.
    3. Oeindrila Dube & Suresh Naidu, 2010. "Bases, Bullets, and Ballots: The Effect of U.S. Military Aid on Political Conflict in Colombia," Working Papers 197, Center for Global Development.
    4. Bellows, John & Miguel, Edward, 2009. "War and local collective action in Sierra Leone," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(11-12), pages 1144-1157, December.
    5. Thad Dunning, 2011. "Fighting and Voting: Violent Conflict and Electoral Politics," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 55(3), pages 327-339, June.
    6. Hafner-Burton, Emilie M. & Hyde, Susan D. & Jablonski, Ryan S., 2014. "When Do Governments Resort to Election Violence?," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 149-179, January.
    7. Kalyvas, Stathis N. & Balcells, Laia, 2010. "International System and Technologies of Rebellion: How the End of the Cold War Shaped Internal Conflict," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 104(3), pages 415-429, August.
    8. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    9. Getmansky, Anna & Zeitzoff, Thomas, 2014. "Terrorism and Voting: The Effect of Rocket Threat on Voting in Israeli Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 588-604, August.
    10. Claude Berrebi & Esteban F. Klor, 2008. "Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism?: Direct Evidence from the Israeli Electorate," Working Papers 477-1, RAND Corporation.
    11. Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson & Rafael J. Santos, 2013. "The Monopoly Of Violence: Evidence From Colombia," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 5-44, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Iván Higuera Mendieta, 2017. "Control armado y comportamiento electoral: Un cuasi-experimento en el Caguán," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 256, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Jorge Gallego, 2015. "Natural Disasters and Clientelism: the Case of Floods and Landslides in Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo 012537, Universidad del Rosario.
    3. Thomas Bassetti & Raul Caruso & Darwin Cortes, 2015. "Behavioral differences in violence: The case of intra-group differences of Paramilitaries and Guerrillas in Colombia," DISCE - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Politica Economica ispe0073, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    4. Mario Chacon, 2017. "In the Line of Fire: Political Violence and Decentralization in Colombia," Working Papers 20170007, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Oct 2017.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jorge Gallego, 2018. "Civil conflict and voting behavior: Evidence from Colombia," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(6), pages 601-621, November.
    2. Alex Braithwaite & Tiffany S. Chu & Justin Curtis & Faten Ghosn, 2019. "Violence and the perception of risk associated with hosting refugees," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 178(3), pages 473-492, March.
    3. Claude Berrebi & Hanan Yonah, 2016. "Terrorism and philanthropy: the effect of terror attacks on the scope of giving by individuals and households," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 171-194, December.
    4. Morales, Juan S., 2021. "Legislating during war: Conflict and politics in Colombia," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    5. Luke N. Condra & Michael Callen & Radha K. Iyengar & James D. Long & Jacob N. Shapiro, 2019. "Damaging democracy? Security provision and turnout in Afghan elections†," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 163-193, July.
    6. Beath,Andrew & Christia,Fotini & Enikolopov,Ruben & Beath,Andrew & Christia,Fotini & Enikolopov,Ruben, 2012. "Winning hearts and minds through development ? evidence from a field experiment in Afghanistan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6129, The World Bank.
    7. Coupé, Tom & Obrizan, Maksym, 2016. "Violence and political outcomes in Ukraine—Evidence from Sloviansk and Kramatorsk," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 201-212.
    8. Olivier Sterck, 2020. "Fighting for Votes: Theory and Evidence on the Causes of Electoral Violence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 87(347), pages 844-883, July.
    9. Lance Y. Hunter & Joseph W. Robbins & Martha H. Ginn & Aaron Hutton, 2019. "Meet in the Middle: Terrorism and Centrist Party Vote Shares in Legislative Elections," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 10(1), pages 60-74, February.
    10. Guy Grossman & Devorah Manekin & Dan Miodownik, 2013. "The Political Legacies of Combat: Attitudes towards war and peace amongst Israeli ex-combatants," HiCN Working Papers 161, Households in Conflict Network.
    11. Inken von Borzyskowski & Patrick M Kuhn, 2020. "Dangerously informed: Voter information and pre-electoral violence in Africa," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(1), pages 15-29, January.
    12. Lordan-Perret, Rebecca & Wright, Austin L. & Burgherr, Peter & Spada, Matteo & Rosner, Robert, 2019. "Attacks on energy infrastructure targeting democratic institutions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 915-927.
    13. Elster, Yael, 2019. "Rockets and votes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 767-784.
    14. Martin-Shields, Charles P. & Stojetz, Wolfgang, 2019. "Food security and conflict: Empirical challenges and future opportunities for research and policy making on food security and conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 150-164.
    15. Benny Geys & Salmai Qari, 2017. "Will you still trust me tomorrow? The causal effect of terrorism on social trust," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 289-305, December.
    16. Iván Higuera Mendieta, 2017. "Control armado y comportamiento electoral: Un cuasi-experimento en el Caguán," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 256, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    17. Max Abrahms & Luis Alfonso Dau & Elizabeth M Moore, 2019. "Terrorism and corporate social responsibility: Testing the impact of attacks on CSR behavior," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 2(3), pages 237-257, September.
    18. Turnbull, Megan, 2021. "When armed groups refuse to carry out election violence: Evidence from Nigeria," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    19. Çağatay Bircan & Ralph De Haas, 2020. "The Limits of Lending? Banks and Technology Adoption across Russia," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(2), pages 536-609.
    20. Vellore Arthi & James Fenske, 2018. "Polygamy and child mortality: Historical and modern evidence from Nigeria’s Igbo," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 97-141, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conflicto armado; Elecciones; Grupos armados ilegales;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000092:015162. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Facultad de Economía (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.